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Quote of the day: By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. – John Maynard Keynes
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Paul Sankey

Sunday Iraq and Roll

We sent you a theme note on BP & BPX yesterday, which was quite sad, remembering the John Browne Sun King glory days. In fact “harsh but fair” was feedback from one US E&P CEO. But as I have said many times, “if you ever feel sorry for an oil CEO, short the stock.” What should BP do? Get into Namibia. Buy a Gulf of Mexico deepwater player, but first cut out of transition investment;

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Paul Sankey April 7, 2024 5:02 PM No Comments
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Paul Sankey

BP: the Camel and the Horse

In this note we consider BP’s position in BPX, its US onshore play, in the context of the overall investment case for BP. Source: BP The following thoughts emerged, embracing multiple metaphors: “A camel is a horse designed by a committee”. BP seems designed by committee. It is a jack of all trades, where it should be the master of one. What is the elevator pitch for buying a stock? BP takes a trans-continental train

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Paul Sankey April 6, 2024 2:38 PM No Comments
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Paul Sankey

Morning Whispers and Reality

This evening 4pm ET HAPPY HOUR with OPEC whisperer Kathleen Kelley, reviewing the latest OPEC chatter after the Joint Market Monitoring Committee met this week. The OPEC powers-that-be said “Carry on”. Kathleen is a former personal advisor to Saudi oil ministers passim, and runs her own consultancy, Queen Ann’s Gate. She is a recognized “OPEC whisperer”, who also consults to major US E&P companies. RSVP to this email or click on this link: Sankey Strategy

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Paul Sankey April 4, 2024 8:42 AM No Comments
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Paul Sankey

Sunday Flares, Flares and No Flares

Greetings!  Happy Easter. Spring is here, early spring, in Brooklyn Heights. I have begun to spend long moments staring at the garden. I shift to another spot and stare at the beds again. No meaningful gardening action as of yet. One asparagus tip has emerged from last year’s “growing asparagus” debacle. Things are going well for us; where do we stand at end-Q1 2024?   As Q1 closes, the first slide is titled: “Energy dangerously close to

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Paul Sankey March 31, 2024 3:39 PM No Comments
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Paul Sankey

CVX for Hess “What if?” Share Price Outcomes

Tonight Happy Hour graveyard slot into the Holiday Weekend. Perfect time for Bordelon vs Sankey. Join us at 4pm ET for “Open Mike” Link here to register interest, or reply to this email. Sankey Strategy Session | Paul Sankey & Greg Bordelon – Interest Form ~ One thing we can chat about is “what happens to respective stock prices if the CVX for Hess deal breaks?” Source: Bloomberg, Sankey Research, WSJ, SEC In this note

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Paul Sankey March 28, 2024 9:00 AM No Comments
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Paul Sankey

Gas Stations & the Weakening Low End Consumer

Gas station stocks: low end consumer weakening. Gas station play Alimentation Couche Tard ($ATD) profit warning. Negative implication for refiners with gas stations, such as DINO. We are backing off our “long gas station stocks” stance but still prefer MUSA (Murphy USA), with its massive buyback and low volatility. But watch for a couple of tough quarters ahead. We like long gasoline (equity ETF is $UGA) as a trade into Memorial Day on supply tightness,

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Paul Sankey March 25, 2024 2:11 PM No Comments