Target: Zero Shares by 2035

By Paul Sankey Published on April 7, 2021 at 9:14 AM

Shell’s results are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get. This cashflow and earnings volatility, of course, is bad for the multiple. At the simplest EV/EBITDA level, Shell trades in the bottom decile of 40 major oil companies, between Southwestern and Ovintiv, a remarkable indictment of market uncertainty over earnings… strategy… management. Based on the company’s Q1 2021 earnings guidance, the stock just got more expensive, as the […]

Read More

Morning CVX vs XOM

By Paul Sankey Published on March 11, 2021 at 9:17 AM

The first slide considered at the Chevron virtual analyst meeting 2021 was pretty depressing. The company showed an adjusted ROCE of 2.9% and a plan to get this to 10% by 2025. On a day when Tesla had the biggest single move by any stock in history (20% up move added $140bn, or more than the entire value of TOTAL in one day) the investment merits of a major oil taking its ROCE from 3% […]

Read More

Morning Shell Out

By Paul Sankey Published on February 11, 2021 at 8:52 AM

Woke up this morning feeling like Groundhog Day, with another 2” of snow on the ground here in Brooklyn, this work from home certainly provides few surprises on the way to work. Which is a 3 yard commute. Little did I know years ago working at Wood Mackenzie and living on the other side of Charlotte Square, that my commute back then would not be the shortest of my career. The joke was it took […]

Read More