Morning Sankey 5/26/21

By Paul Sankey Published on May 26, 2021 at 9:06 AM

Of course one of the most egregious aspects of Oxy’s deal for Anadarko was that a shareholder vote was deliberately avoided by CEO Vicki Hollub. This doubly bad because a preferred $10bn deal with Warren Buffett was the route taken to get a deal cash-rich enough to avoid a shareholder vote. Activist Carl Icahn took revenge by issuing warrants to all shareholders – but not to preferred Buffett – and effectively capped the Oxy share […]

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Morning Sankey 4/27/21

By Paul Sankey Published on April 27, 2021 at 8:57 AM

One thing you get from looking at the BP and Tesla results side-by-side: BP could learn a lot from Tesla about fonts. I find the BP “rich-kindergarten-teacher” font irritating. Tesla results are beautifully presented, to my eye, distressed alloy on black. In this note, we consider Tesla decline rates briefly. That theme will be a long-term one for us, much as we have highlight decline rates in wind and solar.   Even with my begrudging […]

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Target: Zero Shares by 2035

By Paul Sankey Published on April 7, 2021 at 9:14 AM

Shell’s results are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get. This cashflow and earnings volatility, of course, is bad for the multiple. At the simplest EV/EBITDA level, Shell trades in the bottom decile of 40 major oil companies, between Southwestern and Ovintiv, a remarkable indictment of market uncertainty over earnings… strategy… management. Based on the company’s Q1 2021 earnings guidance, the stock just got more expensive, as the […]

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