Morning Sankey 4/6/21

By Paul Sankey Published on April 6, 2021 at 9:02 AM

BP announced the early achievement of its 35% debt target after the strength of Q1, and we think several unhedged oil companies will surprise with the strength of their profits after a $60/bbl quarter. We believe the overall market has lost track of just how profitable major oils are when oil prices are above $60/bbl, by which we mean the entire S&P500 upstream oil sector, with the major warning on levels of hedging exposure (see […]

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Morning Mood Swing 3/30/21

By Paul Sankey Published on March 30, 2021 at 8:26 AM

Get ready for a dump of April Fool’s Day OPEC jokes as the Organisation meets formally this week, culminating on Thursday April 1st. Rollover is seen as the most likely outcome, which would be for April, Saudi extending its market control, with recent volatility in oil prices – ie downside moves – seen as the key concern. It’s a never-ending wonder trying to forecast oil markets, and now to be in new era. Here, we […]

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Sunday Sankey 3/14/21

By Paul Sankey Published on March 14, 2021 at 12:50 PM

There’s only one major Central Bank that is tightening right now, and it is the Saudi Arabian Oil Ministry. ABS (Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman) has become the Alan Greenspan of the world oil economy, and he is relishing it.  Exactly as we expected, while the “ugly contest” amongst currencies has allowed the dollar to stabilize, the one lever over which the Fed has no control – oil – is not only rising rapidly […]

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