Thematic: the Most Interesting Boring Chart in Oil

By Paul Sankey Published on November 12, 2022 at 11:57 AM

With 3Q22 oil & gas earnings effectively in the books, we took the opportunity to aggregate 2023 production and capex forecasts across the oil & gas sector.  We looked at consensus estimates for 50 of the largest energy producers in the US, Canada, and Europe and find 2023 production expectations struggle to stay flat as a projected 15% y/y capex inflation continues to undergo upside pressure. The aggregate producer group represents just over 21 mmbbl/d […]

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Morning Rubbernecking

By Paul Sankey Published on October 20, 2022 at 9:38 AM

What can you do but write an earnings note during earnings? Well, we put out a theme note yesterday on East Med, which had good reviews, but question marks over the materiality to the big winner, Chevron. As the oil space, and its respective components, have settled into a sensible valuation structure and lack of differentiation between themes, the quest is on to look at Kosmos or offshore drillers for some excitement. And we will […]

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Morning DOE Boom!

By Paul Sankey Published on August 24, 2022 at 11:28 AM

It’s a time of year when the Wednesday 10:30am US government Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (DOE EIA) weekly oil data matters. We normally disdain trying to jerk our knee faster than the army of commodity analysts who jerk their knees as fast as possible to DOE print, some who go so far to send out the entire tables verbatim (thanks!) but this week, for fun, we are competing for the fast note reaction […]

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