Sunday Sankey 1/16/22

By Paul Sankey Published on January 16, 2022 at 2:07 PM

Well, I’m in one of those mindsets where every headline I read my reaction is “Bullish oil.” Iraq Oil report carries a much higher oil production number for Iraq than other sources. My reaction: “Bullish.” Libya struggles, my reaction: “Bullish.” These two elements are theoretically in opposition, but on the one hand, variable Libya performance is ongoing, on the other, the lack of spare capacity in oil markets is clearly driving prices and if Iraq […]

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Some 2022 Bets Previewed

By Paul Sankey Published on December 30, 2021 at 12:23 PM

Thinking about the year ahead, one of my favourite Twitter follows @Raisingthebar47 published the following deliberately non-consensus list of things that will happen energy in 2022. The list is interesting, notably for natgas theorists, but also because it represents what could be considered a list of unexpected events for the year; it was just a quick checklist of things to consider: Natgas back to <$2.50/mcf MVP cancelled/pushed to ’23 (Mountain Valley Pipeline) Oil hits <$50/bbl […]

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Afternoon $PUMP

By Paul Sankey Published on December 22, 2021 at 3:58 PM

One of the great conundrums of oil is decline rate One of the unconsidered factors is oil field SERVICE decline rates of 20% per annum Oil field inflation is colliding with US E&P capital discipline US production growth next year over/under is just +500kb/d with downside We spoke to ProPetro $PUMP and others around our recent trip to Midland, the core of the Permian. Adding US production volumes over 2022 is going to be a […]

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