Recent Posts

Pioneer-Parsley & History

Breaking news: WSJ October 18th 2020 Pioneer Natural Resources is in talks to buy Parsley Energy, according to people familiar with the matter, as a wave of consolidation takes hold in the beleaguered oil patch. Word from the oil field is the deal was due to be announced last week and got sidelined by COP-CXO. (Twitter). M&A stories in the WSJ are considered the most reliable of any business new source. Last week they were […]

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8:11 AM

Chevron for ExxonMobil?

Chevron for ExxonMobil merger? The numbers and strategy make sense. Reduced costs, reduced capex, get through the dividend mess, and upgrade the overall player in ESG terms (mega-company suggested new name: “Chevron”). All year XOM has been breaking bad levels, and the latest is that its market cap fell below Chevron’s yesterday. Just a reminder on scale, with market caps equal at ~$140bn: XOM Capital employed $236bn and a feeble 6% ROCE in 2019. $31bn […]

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9:15 AM

Total Podium End Quarter

It was an especial pleasure to see a leader speaking at a podium with a TOTAL command of the current complex situation, with a complete grasp of facts and figures, a near-term and long-term vision that is both pragmatic and exciting. The fact that the entire presentation was delivered with charm and wit in the speaker’s second language, made it all-the-more impressive. I am of course speaking of TOTAL’s CEO Patrick Patrick Pouyanné , at the […]

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5:45 PM

Morning Titanic Sankey

Three analyst meetings in two weeks: BP, Apple, Tesla. Confirmed by Tesla Battery Day: the Big Oils need to pursue a strategy of “orderly liquidation” in line with our “Renaissance of US E&P” thesis. Cut capex, reduce growth, return cash to shareholders. Orderly liquidation. Shrink to grow value. We are advising a refiner to go private, we have been for years, arguably we have been for all refiners. No growth capex, buy back stock until […]

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9:17 AM

Afternoon Sankey

There is a conspiracy theory, totally unsubstantiated, that Nikola Tesla was in New York the day the Hindenburg airship crashed in 1937, and that had been asked to use an ion gun to bring down the airship and preserve the US helium monopoly, while denigrating flammable hydrogen, that the Hindenburg was forced to use, owing to the US monopoly. This of course is a wild, somewhat meaningless and certainly unsubstantiated conspiracy theory, but it fits […]

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2:19 PM

Sunday Sankey 8/23/20

This week we can hardly avoid the elevated market levels, the all-time record of growth over value, and the general unease on Wall Street at the nature of current markets. I had the privilege and pleasure of chatting to a favourite client and senior world-famous investor yesterday, quarantined as he is in the Hamptons, and he said in his long career he has never seen anything like this, but that you have to assume that […]

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12:14 PM

ESG Monster Problems: Gorgon and Three Gorges

This will be the first year our family doesn’t vacation in Hawaii because of COVID. Normally it is because we can’t afford it. What is Britain’s biggest export? Independence days. I was overtaken by a car being driven by a sheep in a swimsuit. I think it was a lamb bikini. We’ve had some impact research this week, based on feedback, but there is an altruistic side to everything we do, and, much as you […]

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9:39 AM

Sunday Sankey 8/2/20

Our usual round up of the continuing power of growth stocks over value stocks, concerns about the US$, the fact that the oil market is weakening again, watching hurricane season into seasonal slowdown. We cover XOM, CVX, refining, markets, “The New 1950s” and much more besides within! Continue reading

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10:21 AM
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