S&P 5004662.85+3.82+0.08%

Nasdaq14893.75+86.94+0.59%

VIX19.19-1.12-5.51%

DXY95.32+0.06+0.06%

CO4.4+0.02+0.46%

WTI83.45+0.91+1.1%

NATTY6.57-0.08-1.2%

Quote of the day: Each greenhouse-grown supermarket-bought tomato has the equivalent of five tablespoons of diesel embedded in its production. Vaclav Smil.

Biofuels
Paul Sankey

Sunday Sankey 1/16/22

Well, I’m in one of those mindsets where every headline I read my reaction is “Bullish oil.” Iraq Oil report carries a much higher oil production number for Iraq than other sources. My reaction: “Bullish.” Libya struggles, my reaction: “Bullish.” These two elements are theoretically in opposition, but on the one hand, variable Libya performance is ongoing, on the other, the lack of spare capacity in oil markets is clearly driving prices and if Iraq

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Government & ESG
Paul Sankey

Mice & Men

Has Covid-19 forced you to wear glasses and a mask at the same time? You may be entitled to condensation. Vin Diesel only eats two meals a day to keep in shape for making movies: Breakfast and breakfurious A genie granted me one wish, so I said “I just want to be happy.” Now I’m living in a cottage with 6 dwarves and working in a mine. Robert Burns: “The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’

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Baker Hughes
Paul Sankey

Masters’ Class

Mike Masters was the first American to score a goal at Wembley. But we had a different Mike Masters on Happy Hour last night, the hugely successful hedge fund manager who had a swimming scholarship to Tennessee, and started Masters Capital in 1994. He became highly prominent in 2008, testifying to Congress on oil speculation. Mike Masters: the market is obsessed with post-COVID recovery, but is not thinking enough about the decade prior to COVID

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Morning Sankey
Paul Sankey

Third Wheels & India

Portfolio Manager Special Happy Hour Tonight, 5pm ET, with Michael Masters. There might be no better commentator on “inflation day” than Mike. We additionally have four energy/natural resources PMs confirmed. VERY LIMITED event. Sankey Happy Hour Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIocuuprTooG9SqNZxj9rgUjl9KZxTOEHAJ Masters first came to national – and my – attention testifying to Congress further to a white paper he wrote on oil speculation around 2008. It is always a good sign when you write a research note

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Canadian Natural
Paul Sankey

We like them all

Make a good call, they always play out really fast and leave you wondering what’s next. We left last year predicting a bad January but a good year for markets, and a good year for oils. Markets have been quite the ride, notably yesterday the NASDAQ was crazy, while the oils have been good. In our cross plot of performance shown below, it is clear that some 2021 laggards are ripping this year, notably refining.

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Commodities Non-Oil
Paul Sankey

Looking for Kilos

Yesterday I took on re-modelling the oil market according to the new world order: OPEC+. But I also spoke to a top hedge fund portfolio manager, US mega-player, who is based in Singapore for a couple of months. He made the following points: Strong Singapore economy with staff shortages – he waited an hour for a coffee the other day China cutting back on energy intensity. Brain drain from Hong Kong. Massive capex cycle starting

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