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Quote of the day: Pelé: “Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice, and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.”
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Climb the Rigging & Haul the Ropes

Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require

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Paul Sankey August 9, 2026 9:02 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Ryan Lance/ConocoPhillips End Game: Sell it to Chevron?

I read a Tweet the other day that has been playing in my head: “What if the bubble is only just forming?” That got stuck in my head as we hit all time highs on the S&P5000 – before a Hormuz deal. No question, liquidity is sloshing, with the Treasury Secretary selling Euros to buy Yen… to keep the carry trade alive. Inflating markets. On ConocoPhillips there are other inner monologues in this note that

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Paul Sankey August 6, 2026 1:23 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

I don’t know where I’m going, but I sure know where I’ve been…

Reminder: we have Valero management live as this week’s Happy Hour. Thursday, August 6th @ 2:30PM ET – note unusual time. Guests: Randy Hawkins, VP International Crude Oil Supply & Trading, and Brian Donovan, VP IR; not sure on Homer Bhullar, CFO, but would not be shocked if he is on. Submit interest: sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-valero-interest-form Five questions for Valero: Q1a: Pre- vs post-Hormuz: what changed in your crude slate and product yields, with Russia escalation on

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Paul Sankey August 4, 2026 12:09 PM No Comments

Sunday: The Assyrian Came Down Like a Japanese Yen

Greetings, After sending you a UAE note yesterday that tried to start punchy with Hormuz volume charts, then later went back 2,500 years to to Cyrus the Great, Persian Empire I, today we have mostly charts. “You, me, and the UAE” was emailed to you yesterday intra-Saturday. It feels a momentous time in writhing markets, and it feels like the combination of the Japanese Yen, the new Fed Chair, and well, Korea’s Kopsi index, never

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Paul Sankey August 2, 2026 7:26 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

You, Me, and the UAE; Oil Export Volumes, History & Present Situation

Illustrated below, Hormuz flows split crude oil vs products. We note the extent to which the war has interrupted oil product supplies globally, especially to Asia and Europe. Source: Kpler, Sankey Research, Claude The market tends to focus on the crude oil impact, but in reality it is gasoline trading at $150/bbl wholesale, not crude at $90/bbl. We did not quite get the celebrated $250/bbl, but Asian jet fuel hit $240.50/bbl on 4 March —

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Paul Sankey August 1, 2026 3:37 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Happy Hour, C’est Moi: Open mike today, next Thursday Valero Head of Trading

Today, if anyone wants to join, I will do an open mike session as our Happy Hour this week. 4pm ET by Zoom. It might be just you and me if you dial in. Which is good by me. I made a presentation to 100 insurance executives yesterday and I have been on both Bloomberg TV and Radio this morning, so I am rapping. Open Mike Discussion July 30th 2026: https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-open-mic-interest-form/ Things to chat about:

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Paul Sankey July 30, 2026 12:54 PM No Comments