S&P 5003647.29-7.75-0.21%

Nasdaq-100%

VIX32.8+0.2+0.61%

DXY109.66-0.17-0.15%

CO2.9900%

WTI72.58-2.42-3.23%

NATTY4.3+0.04+0.94%

Quote of the day: “Life starts all over again when it gets crisp in the fall.” – F. Scott Fitzgerald

Gassy E&P
Paul Sankey

Morning Negative Revisions

With markets in flames like something out of a Naked Gun movie, Central Bankers the inept cops, rioting traders burning and looting, we continue our post Labor Day theme of advising on fire prevention and avoiding arrest. So: it is sadly time for another negative earnings revision cycle.  We rolled up over 60 US-based energy companies covering upstream, midstream, downstream, integrateds, and oilfield service to see get the booking mugshot for the group. After chasing

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Cheniere
Paul Sankey

Morning Complex and Simple

Trading call: all the world is expecting a market bounce today, quite possibly violent this week, as the Fear/Greed index gets into “Extreme Fear” Territory. We see this as a short term bounce, and are waiting until we are nearer towards full winter before looking for the big bull call on oils into 2023. Weather in Brooklyn: chilling in line with winter starting December 5th, our traditional date for first snow in NYC; key question

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Cheniere
Paul Sankey

Sunday Calm Before

We mourn the passing of Steve Chazen on 23rd September, he will be remembered as a legend. It was a privilege to have known him. Rest in Peace. We wrote the History of Oxy in December 2021, which includes the almost 30 year impact of Steven Chazen (joined in 1994, died as Chairman 2022). ~ Bill Bishop at Sinocism: For those who have not heard the rumors, Xi [Jinping, China President] has been supposedly removed

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Alternative Utilities
Paul Sankey

Morning Scope 4

Brooklyn Cop at 844th Precinct accuses innocent Sankey of being “weird-looking” “They” got caught speeding yesterday: fast unwind of long natgas / short refining trade Terrific Happy Hour with Jay Saunders and a couple of other hitters last night; introducing Scope 4 Jennison portfolio manager (PM) Jay Saunders is very popular in the market, you can tell that by the players that dialled in to participate in his call yesterday. He co-runs the Jennison Natural

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Airlines & Cruise Ships
Paul Sankey

Morning Mo Money Mo Problems

“I, Russia” Putin desperation rising Oil markets: would you rather have weak China demand with low oil product exports, or post lockdown China with high product exports? Yet another inventory release threat: China An inventory release threat, Iran, was highlighted by us as likely to go into instability given reports of the serious illness of the aging Supreme Leader. Say her name: “Mahsa Amini”. Protests raging, rightly. “Morality Police” murdering women. As the Fed raises,

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Cheniere
Paul Sankey

Evening Ethane Rejection

Hate to keep going with our infuriating “bearish short term, bullish long term” call (eg refining. We had a conversation with Battery Guru Steve Levine today about how badly future electric vehicle sales are going to fail to meet expectations over the coming years, and he is confirmed on Happy Hour for next week, 29th September, 5pm ET save the date. This week: Jay Saunders, Senior Co-Portfolio Manager, Jennison (Natural Resources). Jay has been running

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