S&P 500NA+NA+NA%

NasdaqNA+NA+NA%

VIXNA+NA+NA%

DXYNA+NA+NA%

CONA+NA+NA%

WTI88.27-0.18-0.2035%

NATTY2.63-0.12-4.3636%

Quote of the day: By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. – John Maynard Keynes

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Paul Sankey

Sunday Paty, Paty, and St Patrick

Greetings, Happy St Patrick’s Day to all, not least my wife Patricia and her mom, Patricia, both “Paty”. A thought today for my Irish grandmother, Ivy. From Cork. This past week: ExxonMobil slipped out the old Friday-night-after-the-close press release on yet more Guyana exploration success Profrac announced a market share war in US pressure pumping that we thought so significant, we started a major oil price & market thematic. Stay tuned on ACDC (the ticker

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Paul Sankey

Morning Whales, Dolphins, Sharks and Chickens

Great client feedback our on CVX-Hess note that was published overnight and is in your in-box. Noted, attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and refineries are significant, in our view. Impacts on Russian refining are bullish diesel and bullish US refiners. Bloomberg 03/13 11:01 *KIMMERIDGE ISSUES OPEN LETTER TO SILVERBOW HOLDERS Bloomberg 03/13 Top Biomass Power Supplier Enviva Files For Bankruptcy ~ Now for something completely different – within oil – but no less interesting. Northern

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Paul Sankey

Hess, CVX, XOM Guyana: Golden Goose, Tight Holes

Heading to Houston next week, following major oil leaders, lots of chat on the biggest oil corporate story right now. In this note we update our delineation of Guyana’s Stabroek block, with a view to the value that is essentially disputed in the takeover battle between Chevron and ExxonMobil for Hess. Many have noted how disclosure on Guyana from XOM was shut down nearly two years ago, and we speculate. We delineate Hess value, as

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Paul Sankey

Letter From Oaxaca

Greetings from the beach, To avoid repetition, let’s not talk about market all-time highs, concentration, and the N-stock. Let’s talk about Mesoamerican history-based opportunities in Mexican real estate. Because I’m in Porto Escondido, State of Oaxaca, Mexico. Photo above. Oaxaca State, capital Oaxaca City, on the southwest Pacific coast, is known as a poor state, with the most indigenous (pre-Hispanic) population, with remarkable history and historic sites, and world famous gastronomy. In this note we

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Paul Sankey

Morning US Natgas Cuts, Holdovers, Spare Capacity, and Negative NAVs

Rounding out our series on the drama of US natural gas – the under-pinning of the global energy economy – we combine the latest news on gas rig cuts with 10K reserves filings to show a concerning picture for the US natural gas market and gassy equity valuations. Relatively, and long term, we like Antero on liquids-rich production, deep inventory and strong propane. Similarly Range (RRC) has the second highest NGL cut after Antero. We

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Paul Sankey

Morning Rocking the Status Quo

Loving these markets, and really enjoying the CVX-Hess-XOM-CNOOC drama. Front line stuff. DOE data – time to check in on the market. Verdict: everything okay in oil, we like the bullish trade into driving season. We like Big Oils, but there is tremendous noise and volatility around Chevron for Hess vs ExxonMobil. Today’s headlines have to be read in the context of ExxonMobil’s bid for Pioneer. The most they can say is effectively re-iterate their

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