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Quote of the day: “The real problem of humanity is this: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.” E.O Wilson
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

At Some Disputed Barricade

I Have a Rendezvous with Death By Alan Seeger. When World War I broke out in 1914, Seeger enlisted in the French Foreign Legion – which has a reputation for absolutely the toughest, non-French (no questions asked) paratroopers. He joined “out of a romantic and idealistic devotion to France”. Seeger – same family as folk legend Pete Seeger – fought on the Western Front and was killed in action at age 28 on July 4,

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Paul Sankey November 11, 2026 8:08 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday’s First Rule of Wall St: Keep Your Seat

Ten days ago I was chatting in the lobby of a major hedge fund to a senior sales guy at a massive market maker. That day the market, particularly the NASDAQ, was coughing violently with an increasingly red face. “I’m bearish,” he told me outright. “Pretty, pretty bearish. We have to flush out CoreWeave. And that will lead to a lot of other stuff getting flushed.” This week, CoreWeave reports (Tuesday 10 November after the

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Paul Sankey November 8, 2026 8:27 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Thematic: Devon, Activists, and the Corporate Raiders

Devon Energy Board’s strategic review culminated with a thud this past week in a “Letter to Shareholders” that accompanied results after the market on Thursday. The letter was met with howls of protest from shareholders (at least the shareholder activists). In this note we consider the Devon board’s memo to itself. The letter was released with good 3Q results, and concluded: “restructuring complete”. The “carry on, as you were” strategy flies in the face of

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Paul Sankey November 7, 2026 2:53 PM No Comments

Premium Only: US E&P Robert Clarke Wood Mac transcript and replay

Summary of Happy Hour yesterday evening US oil production: Clarke said lower 48 output has been “sneaky” strong. Rigs are up about 40 from the start of the year in the important geographies. Woodmac’s lower 48 crude and condensate exit rate is 11.4m b/d against 11.0m b/d modelled earlier in the year, about 400,000 b/d above its January/February view. He put 2027 growth at 300,000 b/d or more. He attributed the beat to smaller private

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Paul Sankey November 6, 2026 1:05 PM No Comments

Strategy Session 4pm ET (now) Robert Clarke Wood Mackenzie US E&P

Happy Hour today, to help you think about the potential for major M&A in US oil & gas, we have an exploration and production (E&P) focus. Major E&P M&A and consolidation are very much in the air. My pet theory is Chevron for ConocoPhillips, but the market is all over Devon as a breakup or takeover. We just got EQT for Range. Wildcard might be ExxonMobil for Oxy, XOM can use its balance sheet, taking

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Paul Sankey November 5, 2026 3:54 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Meet Your Next President (Ossoff Bluenami)

Oof well, we have been working a lot on refining valuation these past weeks, and the refiners got absolutely smashed today. Shout out to the trading desk (I can give you their name but don’t have permission right now to quote) for calling $350/share as the bounce point in Valero, which was down over -10% (low $347.25, -10.4% intraday) at that point, the trader nailed the call in an email to clients. Old School Peabody

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Paul Sankey November 4, 2026 7:35 PM No Comments