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Quote of the day: Today, six of the world’s seven largest solar-panel makers are Chinese, and the seventh—Canadian Solar—has such a large presence in China that it’s planning to list on a stock market there. InterTechnology/Solar Corp, which made the panels Jimmy Carter installed on the White House (since removed), is dormant. – Foreign Policy

ConocoPhillips
Paul Sankey

Morning Sankey 4/13/21

It seems pretty blatantly obvious that Putin is going to invade east Ukraine and join Russian rebel-held territory (see map in Sunday Sankey). He did it with Crimea. Not really a lot you can do, shall we ask Ukraine expert Hunter Biden for his take? There will be a domino effect, because the next question becomes what do you do if China invades Taiwan, given troop build-ups are as big in naval terms in the

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Commodities Non-Oil
Paul Sankey

Sunday Sankey 4/11/21

This week I am heading to Oklahoma to meet Devon CEO Rick Muncrief and then Houston to bid farewell to outgoing ConocoPhillips COO Matt Fox. Opposite ends of the spectrum for me – never met Rick, have hung out many times over the years with Mr. Fox. The lowlight in professional terms with Matt was doing the first marketing trip for COP in NYC after the dividend cut in 2016. The highlight was Matt making

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Delek USA
Paul Sankey

Morning PSJeff 4/9/21

What’s Sisyphus’ least favorite band? The Rolling Stones We visited Japan for two weeks and did not see a single ninja. It was really impressive. “Officer, you can’t give me a ticket. I have to go run the marathon tomorrow.” Cop: “That’s not how you play the race card.” The Ketchup shortage this year was so predictable. Heinz sight is 2020. Happy Hour yesterday evening, we had a player whose firm had done a deep

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Commodities Non-Oil
Paul Sankey

SPAC Alert: The Life Cycle of Li-Cycle

Looking for SPAC names, we had highlighted Quantumscape as interesting from the point of view of long-term potential. However, like so many alternative energy plays, revenues are years away from scale commercialization (a pilot project for the $19bn market cap company is due by 2023), and the company recently issued 13m shares at $64 to finance its high-cost development work (the stock fell to $47 over the next two days). We had the impression “funding

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BP
Paul Sankey

Target: Zero Shares by 2035

Shell’s results are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get. This cashflow and earnings volatility, of course, is bad for the multiple. At the simplest EV/EBITDA level, Shell trades in the bottom decile of 40 major oil companies, between Southwestern and Ovintiv, a remarkable indictment of market uncertainty over earnings… strategy… management. Based on the company’s Q1 2021 earnings guidance, the stock just got more expensive, as the

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BP
Paul Sankey

Morning Sankey 4/6/21

BP announced the early achievement of its 35% debt target after the strength of Q1, and we think several unhedged oil companies will surprise with the strength of their profits after a $60/bbl quarter. We believe the overall market has lost track of just how profitable major oils are when oil prices are above $60/bbl, by which we mean the entire S&P500 upstream oil sector, with the major warning on levels of hedging exposure (see

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