Recent Posts

Pioneer-Parsley & History

Breaking news: WSJ October 18th 2020 Pioneer Natural Resources is in talks to buy Parsley Energy, according to people familiar with the matter, as a wave of consolidation takes hold in the beleaguered oil patch. Word from the oil field is the deal was due to be announced last week and got sidelined by COP-CXO. (Twitter). M&A stories in the WSJ are considered the most reliable of any business new source. Last week they were […]

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8:11 AM

Total Podium End Quarter

It was an especial pleasure to see a leader speaking at a podium with a TOTAL command of the current complex situation, with a complete grasp of facts and figures, a near-term and long-term vision that is both pragmatic and exciting. The fact that the entire presentation was delivered with charm and wit in the speaker’s second language, made it all-the-more impressive. I am of course speaking of TOTAL’s CEO Patrick Patrick Pouyanné , at the […]

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5:45 PM

Morning Titanic Sankey

Three analyst meetings in two weeks: BP, Apple, Tesla. Confirmed by Tesla Battery Day: the Big Oils need to pursue a strategy of “orderly liquidation” in line with our “Renaissance of US E&P” thesis. Cut capex, reduce growth, return cash to shareholders. Orderly liquidation. Shrink to grow value. We are advising a refiner to go private, we have been for years, arguably we have been for all refiners. No growth capex, buy back stock until […]

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9:17 AM

Where is oil as Laura hits? Morning Sankey 8/27/20

Corporate newsflow remains quiet, with the market awaiting more details on the historic announcement from BP on its climate change plans, due September 14th-16th. Several major US oil investors consider this BP move a 100-year strategy shift for big oil. Notably the stunning -40% oil and gas production reduction, as a strategy pillar. US investors remain cynical, the most negative seeing the announcement as a smokescreen for the dividend cut. Elsewhere re-injection issues for ExxonMobil/Hess […]

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8:35 AM

ESG Monster Problems: Gorgon and Three Gorges

This will be the first year our family doesn’t vacation in Hawaii because of COVID. Normally it is because we can’t afford it. What is Britain’s biggest export? Independence days. I was overtaken by a car being driven by a sheep in a swimsuit. I think it was a lamb bikini. We’ve had some impact research this week, based on feedback, but there is an altruistic side to everything we do, and, much as you […]

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9:39 AM

Morning Sankey 7/31/20

If you ever wanted a sense of what it would be like to have your house in foreclosure, and have the neighbour tell you in passing they are moving permanently to a $200m yacht, yesterday was that day for oil analysts. Oil specialists’ darling ConocoPhillips surprised the market with its sales… and so did Apple, Amazon, and Facebook. Continue reading

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7:20 AM

Morning Sankey 7/10/20

The market seems toppy, if it sells off on a judge ruling on the long-running debate over President Trump’s tax returns, which is what happened yesterday. The ruling extends the to-and-fro and is seen as unlikely to result in a release before the election. Yet the S&P500 sold off… but the NASDAQ, as ever, rose regardless. Later in the day, a potentially more market-unfriendly series of headlines somehow had less negative effect: CNBC reports Presidential […]

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8:30 AM

Shell writes down, so XOM?

Not that we ever had any great confidence in Shell, but the dividend cut so early in the COVID crisis was a shock. Reminder: we believe the entire investment case of the Megamajors pertains to dividend, and we value the stocks as such. That’s why BP’s announcement yesterday of a $5bn petchem sale to Ineos was so positive. If these companies want to pursue a net zero emissions target, the most shareholder-friendly path is to […]

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7:37 AM
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