Recent Posts

Sunday CRC

I asked a major activist investor if I should zip over to Denver this week for the Enercom conference, (starts tomorrow). It’s a staple of the August energy conference diet, which is not a rich diet. Enercom, you pay to attend and a plethora of smaller oil & gas exploration and production companies make presentations with meet & greet. I’ve been once and a client told me as I headed there, the first time he […]

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11:41 PM

Sunday Carnasie

Big week for what should be terrific oil earnings this week. Watching Iraq Highlight charts – market rebounding, oils catching a bid ~ Week ahead: It’s good to see that oil earnings have worked back onto generalist earnings calendars, as shown from “Earnings Whispers” below. Devon aftermarket Monday sure, BP, Marathon Petroleum and Oxy Tuesday, etc, but believe me, a year ago Berry and Callon did not make these lists (see Wednesday below). Marathon Oil […]

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4:11 PM

Say what? Not there yet… Q2 2022 so far

This note outlines the mega-themes that are emerging mid-way through oils’ reporting season. We listened to a lot of calls, read A LOT of transcripts, and distill it here, for your Saturday afternoon reading by the pool on your yacht. Last evening I reflected that this weekend I was as likely to bit hit by a massive piece of falling Chinese space debris, as to win the mega-millions and get my own yacht with pool. […]

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2:52 PM

Hone on the Range $RRC

Hess came in on the money, for EPS this quarter, with some noise, but the long term value of Guyana just keeps getting bigger, and this is a remarkable play on the oil age pressing through 2030. Call today. The way things are shaping up in Europe, oil & gas resource in the Americas is severely under-valued. Guyana value is staggering, we have talked about Hess as a $200 stock long term. Besides the chronic […]

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8:22 AM

Natgas Prices, Arbs, $AR, and Snoop

Our main concern about the Freeport LNG export outage is that it inspires some “consumer hero” politician in Washington to justify an export ban on oil & gas. The price impact of a cut to gas exports was dramatic yesterday, -15% on spot Henry Hub; Freeport said it would be out for 90 days, end 2022 full resumption. It is imperative that Washington understands the importance of free trade and the role in US oil […]

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7:01 AM

Chesapeake: On a Mission from God

The concept of this note is “putting the band back together” in the theme of the Blues Brothers, as we see the potential for Chesapeake to merge with Southwestern. The Blues Brothers (1980): Jake: We’re putting the band back together. Mr. Fabulous: Forget it. No way. Elwood: We’re on a mission from God. We could get into a long and tearful reminiscence about US natgas legend and Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon (there is a tribute […]

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8:21 AM

You said that; Hess, Antero, Suncor

First quarter reporting season is always a crazy flurry, and this one is no different. To add to the excitement, just as I sat back yesterday having published on Antero, news broke that Elliott Associates had gone activist on Suncor. We had Hess IR Jay Wilson on Strategy Session. Hess could be worth $200/share on a five year view, at $100/bbl oil. For sure, Guyana is just about the only major global oil supply growth. […]

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9:03 AM

Sunday Sankey

Quick read today as you got a longer note yesterday on LNG, and I am running late. Just pictures today, and Betsey asked to be on the cover of the Sunday Sankey so it’s a presentation. All the fun favourite charts. Key slides: next week’s earnings highlights starting with Valero. Relative performance, oils performance, high free cashflow yields, and a cash return chart that will be updated on a rolling basis through earnings. Earnings calendar […]

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5:46 PM

LNG: Gordon & Gorgon

This LNG round up with Gordon Shearer (Poten & Partners guru) from Thursday night took longer to write and I got tangled in the SLB results, which came in okay – readers will know I am not pushing service companies but love oils… “to 10% of S&P500!” Chatting to a client with Midstream expertise before Gordon Shearer, LNG expert, came on Strategy Session Thursday evening, the view was that Kinder Morgan results were decent owing […]

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5:43 PM

Friday Highlights

Having featured a fellow independent researcher on Strategy Session last night – Doomberg – today’s note is a highlight reel of other people’s research. But of course first, Friday you demand jokes, and we are not here to disappoint clients. I used to play the triangle in a band, but it’s just one ting after another. I swallowed a dictionary, and now I have thesaurus throat. My boss arrived at work in a new Lambourghini, […]

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8:41 AM

I just dropped in…

Hi I am just checking in to assure you I survived the Houston NAPE conference, landmen and all, but am still on the road, headed to New Orleans. This week has been discombobulated – my initial flight on Tuesday was cancelled by United, I rushed to Newark, made the 2pm, just made dinner in Houston, made the NAPE conference yesterday, made dinner with a Nebraska CEO, went to the after party rave and here I […]

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10:50 AM

Brassy Sunday Sankey

We have a big Renewable Diesel note coming later today, so in recognition of your Sunday time, just a couple of points on next week. Valero management are in New York City Monday/Tuesday. See what we are doing here? Our Renewable Diesel note is not published tonight by happy accident, it is a cunning plan. One Valero event is a Mark Mills presentation, presumably he of the Manhattan Institute and steely-eyed critic of the energy […]

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4:16 PM

Sunday Sankey 1/30/22

Before we argue that Big Cap tech can stabilise the market here, on a fast & personal take of last week’s and next week’s earnings, in recognition that we need to focus on mega-themes, the latest population data from China is extremely important. NYT January 17th, 2022: China announced on Monday that its birthrate plummeted for a fifth straight year in 2021, moving the world’s most populous country closer to the potentially seismic moment when […]

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4:41 PM

Sunday 2022

Happy New Year! Dan Loeb was complaining on Twitter that we hardly got any time off here: “Even prize fighters get 6 months off between fights, NFL players a week. Only 2 days off between years makes me want to join a union”. He was also welcoming New York’s new mayor; I am completely with Dan on both these matters. By the same token it feels as if neither of us will be joining Gettr.com […]

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8:48 PM

Some 2022 Bets Previewed

Thinking about the year ahead, one of my favourite Twitter follows @Raisingthebar47 published the following deliberately non-consensus list of things that will happen energy in 2022. The list is interesting, notably for natgas theorists, but also because it represents what could be considered a list of unexpected events for the year; it was just a quick checklist of things to consider: Natgas back to <$2.50/mcf MVP cancelled/pushed to ’23 (Mountain Valley Pipeline) Oil hits <$50/bbl […]

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12:23 PM

Sunday Sankey-Laffer

Not talking about COVID, just to say I am feeling 100% fine. This Omicron will hopefully be the largest and fast mass vaccination programme in history, whether by God or Government. Nice chart this morning from Greg Wachsteter, who kindly said I could publish. No more comment on COVID, I think the conclusion here is pretty obvious; this chart is therefore bullish S&P Energy. Sankey-Laffer curves. The presentation attached today, made me think what a […]

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3:52 PM

Sunday Bets

Presentation today, and commentary below: Thursday evening annoucement: major sellside meeting by ExxonMobil: “updates to their company plan” on Wednesday December 1st. Sellside invited. Virtual. Big deal for ExxonMobil. We had pondered how ExxonMobil would manage their annual capex announcement, due in December, vs their traditional strategy update due next March. We pondered if plans would be ready in time for a December update, given the scale of board and management change that has occurred […]

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3:55 PM

Sunday Sankey 10/31/21

Jolly Halloween, Halloween is one of America’s greatest stealth exports. Now huge in UK, for example. In today’s presentation – Suncor strong Q4 to date in big catch up trade; oils outperform during inflation per Fidelity; growth won the past couple of weeks over value, even after Amazon and Apple missed; Big Oils have the highest free cashflow yields and dividend yields of the S&P500 Titans – by far; massive week of oil earnings ahead, […]

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3:03 PM

Morning Sankey 10/28/21

Bearish DOE and dodgy Q3 oil results, with a Shell miss and disaster at EQT, not helping the sector Horrendous results from EQT as expected – increases quarterly loss from 2020 Q3, to $1.98bn? Abysmal… AR re-iterating the client bull’s $35/share target Shell miss might mean bad news for XOM tomorrow, but results are irrelevant: a Shell rant Note Big Oil CEOs in DC today for a roast. One suggestion to the executives: if they […]

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9:21 AM

Morning Range Finder 10/27/21

Hess results look in line. We argue that as the market prices oil terminal value back in, on the failing energy transition, Hess’ Guyana position will re-value higher. Structurally bullish Hess. Range $RRC increases 2022 hedges d’oh. “Wake me up at the end of 2022 on this one”. Negative. Short Neste and long Equinor, both reported – two companies at opposite ends of the valuation spectrum Well, for a highly anticipated week of quarterly results, […]

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8:59 AM

Morning Sankey 9/30/21

Key points: CHK new CEO EQT issues stock & hedging status Enbridge Line 3 starts tomorrow delivering oil, good for Canadian oils Emissions intensity of global oil producers Quote of the day: “I just know the the more control there is, the less growth there is. The great lesson of the twentieth century is that central planning doesn’t work” – Rick Warren (Drucker-Warren Dialogue, 2003) after @buckquivas on Twitter Chesapeake raises Domenic “Nick” Dell’Osso Jr […]

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8:30 AM

Morning Qinhuangdao

Key points today: Virtual roadshow with Embark Autonomous Trucks this week Thursday. China has run out of coal.  Can’t say I had that on my 2021 bingo card. Opening question for Sankey quick hit on CNBC Fast Money: China running out of coal (stock mentioned: Peabody Coal $BTU see below). It became a cyclical vs secular quick debate; further to a client comment “if it doesn’t get cold in December this unravels”, we think it […]

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7:19 AM

Sunday Sankey 9/19/21

Quick Sunday Sankey today. If you want to read more, yesterday there was a long email on Europe vs US energy transition dynamics with a focus on two leaders: UK and Germany. Emailed yesterday on the web at www.sankeyresearch.com It has occurred to me that we may just enter a long, grinding, bear market, as stretched valuations and lack of new marginal buyers slowly erode the market. I mean like a 1970s multi-year market deflation. […]

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1:43 PM

Germany & Britain vs the USA

Greetings from London, You live in the UK and have avoided death by COVID? FT: In the UK, 4m households were unable to afford to adequately heat their homes even before the latest energy price crisis. Some 10,000 deaths a year are linked to living in a cold home, according to the charity National Energy Action. If that represents around 100 deaths per day over the average of four winter months, high energy prices are […]

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10:10 AM

Xi-unday Sankey 9/12/21

In this note, natgas hedging exposure (oops) and a China focus. My S&P500 sentiment Twitter survey yielded a result that is spectacularly unhelpful, lol. Pretty much 50:50 bullish/bearish. All I can say is that it seems I got the categories right, given an almost exact balance between the four choices. One observation made by a major market maker to me this past Friday was that the market absorbed a ton of paper last week, between […]

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12:25 PM

London Sankey 9/5/21

Enjoy the last weekend of summer, beautiful day here in London, readying ourselves for next week with a slew of oil corporate oil & energy newsflow in “conference season” starting with this week’s traditional “Lehman Conference”, as we oil old schoolers know it. For my entire career, the Lehman conference has occupied the oil/energy week after Labor Day. Post-Labor Day, for me, as a research analyst, opens the Wall Street year, back when it culminated […]

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12:08 PM

Sugar Magnolia 8/6/21

Friday, jokes: Breaking news: Robinhood halts trading in Robinhood. Trevor Milton’s career is rolling downhill. How do you make a bomb out of an apple? Puncture the battery. What do ducks say in Mexico? Guac. My son started dating a girl who plays soccer. He says she’s a keeper. Brian Sullivan does a great job on CNBC and is probably the best TV anchor on oil. Alix Steel on Bloomberg is also great. I first […]

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12:13 PM

You’re busy let’s keep this brief

Just as your correspondent was pondering the upside surprises in capital discipline and cash return to shareholders from “4P” premium Permian pure-plays Pioneer ($PXD) and Diamondback ($FANG) announced yesterday evening, and waiting for a similar positive result from ConocoPhillips, than my friends at HollyFrontier announce a $1.8bn deal to marry perennial bridesmaid Sinclair Oil, the MidCon refiner that started life in 1916 and has been private since 1976. HollyFrontier is on a roll, completely counter-cyclically […]

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8:38 AM

Sunday Sankey 8/1/21

We found ourselves standing on the North Slope, Alaska, above the Arctic Circle, surveying the endless flat tundra. There there is no sunlight from October to early March; total darkness over half the year. For the rest of the year, the sun does not go down – no darkness. That place, my friend, is Far North. The nearest city is Anchorage, 1,000 miles south, itself as distant as Perth Australia; palpably remote; strange and distant […]

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1:25 PM

Viernes Sankey 7/9/21

It was the optimum Happy Hour last night, with two expert witnesses, Kathleen Kelley and Jan Stuart, both highly tenured oil market experts, and a mix of long-only and long-short investors, mutual fund and hedge fund. We were also spread across the globe from Amsterdam to Mexico, with Kathleen struggling in a New York flash flood situation that resulted in a viral video of a lady wading into waist deep water to the NYC Subway. […]

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12:03 PM

Sunday Sankey 6/13/21

The note today is delayed by England vs Croatia, thankfully the currently ongoing Austria vs North Macedonia game is not imperative for me to watch.  There are some great slides in today’s presentation. For example on how solar projects do not deliver their IRR, on worrying Indian oil demand, on the global petchem balance by company, and our new mega-theme, of new young CEOs following through on our “Renaissance” theme of US E&Ps. This new […]

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2:22 PM

Sunday Sankey 6/6/21

Welcome to summer, hope you are enjoying breaking out your white pants after Memorial Day. Time to drop $250 on new sunglasses. Get in quick before they are $400.   There is no presentation today as I am working on an oil company Board Presentation for Tuesday in Texas. Ramp spending by increasing debt… might actually be the call, or at least the outside-the-box option, notably to make an acquisition. This week I learned what […]

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1:35 PM

Memorial Monday Sankey 5/31/21

OIL RISK HIGH. We have an OPEC meeting tomorrow, and the word is that Iran is pumping into storage on anticipation of successful negotiations with the Biden administration, which, for reasons I do not fully understand, is very keen to make a nuclear deal. This will allow Iran back into global oil markets. We understand that OPEC is warning Iran not to flood the market, and Iran is saying “we are going to flood the […]

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1:34 PM

Sunday Sankey 5/23/21

Watching Iran, but 1mb/d of oil exports are already in the market. Huge week ahead for ExxonMobil, with the Shareholder Meeting and board vote on Wednesday this week. We wrote about it on Thursday, see the note on www.sankeyresearch.com or emailed. Noted that Halliburton shareholders rejected the company’s pay proposal last week, which is encouraging. The pay of oil executives relative to shareholder returns has been an abomination for years. Executives should try a few […]

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12:19 PM

Morning Sankey 5/12/21

*INVITATION * Today * 10am ET * – Happy Coffee with Li-Cycle CEO Ajay Kochhar. Ajay is extremely strong on all things to do with his business, of re-cycling lithium-ion batteries. By extension, he is extremely strong on batteries, EVs, and particularly Li-Ion factories. He is absolutely at ease with battery market dynamics. Join a conversation with Sankey + a few clients. Yesterday the company announced an agreement with Ultium Cells, a joint venture of […]

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9:01 AM

Morning Sankey 3/26/21

My wife and I were sitting in the living room enjoying a bottle of wine. Out of the blue she said, “I love you. ” Surprised, I asked, “Is that you or the wine talking?” “It’s me,” she said, “talking to the wine.” What do you call a rich Centipede? A Dollarpede A mushroom walks into a bar and the bartender welcomes him. He’s a fun guy. A Freudian slip is where you say one […]

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9:05 AM

Friday before Xmas Sankey

Call to start 2021: our refining conference features all six independent refiners at CEO level. Sankey fireside chats back to back. Please join, you will start 2021 with a great understanding of markets, notable oil and and renewable diesel, but much more besides. I’ve got a case of Corona and I am not going to work today. I’m not sick, I’m just taking the day off to drink the whole case. Customer at a farmer’s […]

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8:28 AM

Sunday Sankey 12/13/20

Last week we highlighted the difference between speculation and investment. We continue that theme with six Big Oil investment picks for 2021, and six speculative picks. We defer on refining until our January 4th refining conference. NOTE we have verbal confirmation from Greg Goff, that he will join the conference for a fireside chat. See inside for details, and register on the website www.sankeyresearch.com Greg and I have to discuss what we discuss, as there […]

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12:18 PM

Sunday Sankey 11/15/20

I’ve been at the computer working like a chickenhawk on Adderall this morning and it still got late in the Sunday. Patricia is having a lovely time in beautiful weather in Mexico at San Miguel de Allende – an absolutely fantastic place with my globally top five favourite hotel – the Rosewood – right there. It might be my favorite, that is how wonderful that place is. Another top five is the Imperial Palace Hotel […]

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2:46 PM
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