Recent Posts

Morning Quantquake

“This job is easy, all you have to do is forecast the oil price right.” In this note we argue that the most expensive group among the oils will run here, based on the recent market “Quantquake” that we outline in this note. What was the Quantquake? Last week saw an extraordinary move in markets. And from this we derive a trading recommendation into year end. There is more to short- and medium-term investing than […]

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8:26 AM

Sunday Garden

The mood on Wall Street is suddenly, that the market will have a traditional post-Midterm bull run into Christmas. Buy them all. There might be some threat from the major turn in the Chinese market, sucking money back into China, and of course the FTX Crypto collapse is widely reported to involve a $30bn personal net worth loss for the now-notorious Sam Bankman Fried, and an $8bn black hole. Will that negatively affect markets? Well […]

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11:07 AM

Morning Rodeo

Tonight on Happy Hour, Ira Joseph, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Energy Policy, Columbia University. Former Head of Global Generating Fuels & Electric Power Pricing and Research at S&P Global Platts. Former Head of Global Gas and Power PIRA Energy Group. Former Editor in Chief Energy Intelligence. The man has 30 years form in energy expertise. Ira was recommended by Sankey Research friend Jay Saunders, long term natural resource Portfolio Manager at Jennison, and connoisseur […]

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10:09 AM

Sunday Breakfasts

Well hello, We sent a note last evening on Coterra and Pioneer reserves/inventory reporting which email already has 1,060 opens in less than 24 hours. That is, in line with our best-read note of the past two months being “Ethane Rejection”. This is a very limited email blast list (paying subscribers only), so the readership is impressive. Please email if you wish to re-receive either. With that said, you are here for your Sunday Sankey […]

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8:14 PM

Sunday Penguins

Week ahead: Fed decision and plenty of earnings. Last week was a big one for markets, to say the least. Mega-cap tech bombing the tape. Worked out great for the oils and energy. A client said my chart of oils’ share of market earnings are too low: I have the group at 5% of the S&P500, but 10% of the earnings of the market, he is getting energy earnings at 15% of the market, which […]

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6:27 PM

Morning Ego Check

Happy Hour Long BP Short Meta on ESG – BP’s is better, we explain why Propane problems, Long ET Short EQT We could not have a better-timed, more informed guest on Happy Hour tonight than Robert Raymond, a major player in private equity oil & gas investment, and our axe (US  translation: ax) on Antero, which reported last night. Strong views on EQT, which reported last night. Hey, strong views on everything that we follow. […]

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9:04 AM

Sunday Shares & Sheeran

Greetings from Texas, The world’s biggest mangrove company kindly invited Paty & me to the Austin Formula One Grand Prix (F1). Cars running E10 are screaming behind me on four source power trains; (V6 1.8 liter, one electric exhaust powered, one electric latent braking powered, and a turbocharger). The world’s biggest mangrove company is Aramco, F1 primary sponsors for this race. I think the sponsorship is genius in increasing the popularity of the world’s greatest […]

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4:19 PM

Sunday History

Yo, Noted, French refining strike seems to be drawing to a close, with ExxonMobil’s Fos returning to normal. Continued issues with the most extreme of the unions, the CGT, for TotalEnergies. Around 30% of French gas stations reported short of product. We perceive the refining workers strike in Iran to be a domestic issue – for now. History of the Iranian Revolution was driven by strikes by Iranian oil workers. The 1979 Iran revolution directly […]

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3:20 PM

Morning Idi

Gossip from dinner with my London lawyer friend who is familiar with, let’s say, “emerging markets law”: Russia’s power rests between the Oligarchs who have the money, vs the military, that have the weapons. The single crossover oligarch, who controls the military, is Putin alone. Can the oligarch class form an ex-Putin alliance with the military? Difficult. Rational analysis of Nordstream pipeline explosions, which logically would conclude that Poland done it, with NATO deep state […]

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6:28 AM

Sunday Primrose Hill

Greetings from London Town, The Giants and Packers fans were out in numbers around the West End – I can’t believe the Giants won! My daughter Honor is the expert – her line was that the Giants might be the best-coached team in football. She is deeply cynical about the team, so, powerful words. By the way her life ambition is to be a CEO, and a Giants Season ticket holder. Meanwhile in the pub […]

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5:28 PM

Saturday Sunday Sankey

Your correspondent is flying tomorrow at 7am La Guardia to Houston for Steve Chazen’s Memorial at 2pm assuming flights co-operate, and so this week’s Sunday is here on a Saturday; a brief highlight reel, or should that be “bloopers” “fails”, and “cringe” in this tape. From the UK pound, to Japanese Yen, to Credit Suisse credit default swaps (CDS) this is a market at war with itself, quite literally. The incredible sabotage to the Nordstream […]

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7:58 PM

Afternoon Theories

This evening! Premium Event! Steve Levine on Happy Hour tonight at 5pm ET re: batteries and electric vehicles, he is a world expert. Biography was emailed to you yesterday, impressive. Steve is now Editor of The Electric, a new, exclusive premium publication at The Information on batteries and EVs. Steve Levine 5pm Thursday 29th Sept: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwtduuvrDMqEta4M3eKkusntGrE1nVV2HoK ~ Watching the NASDAQ below its 200 weekly moving average for the first time in 13 years “The West” […]

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3:20 PM

Morning Negative Revisions

With markets in flames like something out of a Naked Gun movie, Central Bankers the inept cops, rioting traders burning and looting, we continue our post Labor Day theme of advising on fire prevention and avoiding arrest. So: it is sadly time for another negative earnings revision cycle.  We rolled up over 60 US-based energy companies covering upstream, midstream, downstream, integrateds, and oilfield service to see get the booking mugshot for the group. After chasing […]

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8:37 AM

Morning Scope 4

Brooklyn Cop at 844th Precinct accuses innocent Sankey of being “weird-looking” “They” got caught speeding yesterday: fast unwind of long natgas / short refining trade Terrific Happy Hour with Jay Saunders and a couple of other hitters last night; introducing Scope 4 Jennison portfolio manager (PM) Jay Saunders is very popular in the market, you can tell that by the players that dialled in to participate in his call yesterday. He co-runs the Jennison Natural […]

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9:30 AM

Morning Mo Money Mo Problems

“I, Russia” Putin desperation rising Oil markets: would you rather have weak China demand with low oil product exports, or post lockdown China with high product exports? Yet another inventory release threat: China An inventory release threat, Iran, was highlighted by us as likely to go into instability given reports of the serious illness of the aging Supreme Leader. Say her name: “Mahsa Amini”. Protests raging, rightly. “Morality Police” murdering women. As the Fed raises, […]

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8:45 AM

Evening Ethane Rejection

Hate to keep going with our infuriating “bearish short term, bullish long term” call (eg refining. We had a conversation with Battery Guru Steve Levine today about how badly future electric vehicle sales are going to fail to meet expectations over the coming years, and he is confirmed on Happy Hour for next week, 29th September, 5pm ET save the date. This week: Jay Saunders, Senior Co-Portfolio Manager, Jennison (Natural Resources). Jay has been running […]

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7:53 PM

Sunday Gold Delivery

Fed decision this week. TINA is dead. Nothing big in earnings this week, Fedex reporting Friday has warned, in case you totally missed last week; if you did, you missed the largest stock market move on an economic data point, in history Rules of Wall St series: Always short the new CEO of a highly rated stock. Not in the news: Iran’s Supreme Leader said to be gravely ill – watch for upheaval ~ Fed […]

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6:19 PM

Morning Tape Bombs

Refining getting worse LNG export developer Tellurian whacked as it struggles to finance “by mid-2022”. It’s Q3 2022. As the share price falls, financing from the at the money issuance facility becomes even more problematic. Macro influencer Luke Gromen on Happy Hour Fedex profit warning Fiscal 2Q23 guide $2.75 vs cons $5.46 (!!!) Xi-Putin As we feared refining is getting worse. China export quotas as we highlighted yesterday have further pressured weak Asian margins that […]

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8:41 AM

Morning Rails

PREMIUM EVENT TONIGHT Luke Gromen, high profile strategist, is on Happy Hour this week, Thursday 5pm. Big guest, big views, big themes, Main Event Gromen vs Sankey HH 53. Tonight Sep 15, 2022 05:00 PM ET Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMkcemrqDIvHtyqA85Av3APXBad-aTjuSBR Another great call from our Washington DC guru and Happy Hour regular Frank Kelly, who weeks ago said that he did not believe that a rail strike would be tolerable to the […]

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9:04 AM

Sunday Grey

It was a week that started with the Queen accepting a new British Prime Minister, and ended a new King Charles III and the always-somber 9-11. It is a miserable late summer day in New York, drizzle from a windless grey sky. With due respect, there is not a lot in those events directly relevant to oil/energy, and no doubt the last thing you need is more coverage from me. Rather, there is lots of […]

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4:48 PM

Morning between a Hard Rock and a palace

Rest in Peace, Queen Elizabeth II. Long live the King! The rainbows were just amazing. One US media outlet described the Queen as the last human link to Great Britain, the Britain of Empire, such as it was when she became Queen in the 1950s. This resonated with me, the Queen with Churchill in photos, for example. Her passing bought back memories of my father, another link to Empire, who left this mortal coil last […]

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8:12 AM

Our Bob’s Gasoline

Last call for the Sankey Research Party at the Hard Rock Penthouse tonight. If you are in NYC and around Times Square, we have a glittering panoply of oil market experts, CEOs, investors, and some hangers on, all welcome. Kathleen Kelley “OPEC whisperer” will comment on the symbolic cut, and we are highlighting the new CEO of refiner Delek USA Avigal Soreq. RSVP if you want to join, there is plenty of space and we […]

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1:13 PM

Sunday Life Guard

Labor Day outlook for oil and energy markets into year end; there is plenty more research to be done. You could make a big call on oil today for the next four months, and be wrong by Tuesday this week, with OPEC+ meeting Monday. If they cut and crank oil prices, you could make a bear call today, reverse your view on Tuesday and be wrong by Thursday when the ECB may be pushed towards […]

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8:32 PM

Evening Alimentation

One of our favoured, relatively unmined seams of research, pertains to gas station companies, oil retail, helped by their eccentric reporting schedule. Under its frankly weird fiscal calendar, Alimentation Couche-Tard ($ATD) reported earnings at the close yesterday for fiscal 1Q23, a period ending July 12, 2022.  In a world of energy ignorance, it is widely perceived that high gasoline pump prices are prima facie evidence of gouging by gas station companies, which politicians somehow think […]

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3:59 PM

What to expect when you are expecting

Expecting a recession. Most market participants worry about a recession. No less than Goldman Sachs is clearly concerned: Bloomberg 8/29/22 Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’ •             Slowdown risks outside Europe seen ‘relatively low,’ bank says •             Equities could suffer as raw materials gain, analysts forecast We are all aware of the obvious mega-problems, that Putin is pushing Europe into a depression, China is straight-up missing in action, and the rapid expansion of […]

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8:49 AM

Morning Refining Fire

We have spoken about the structural shortage of US refining capacity repeatedly. We have warned that the US refining system has been running very hard, but has been unable to keep inventories from all time lows relative to demand, particularly for distillate. And we have underlined that distillate (think diesel for my newbie readers) is the default “convenience premium” fuel when natgas and coal get short. It is easier to transport, and generally directly substitutable. […]

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9:31 AM

Sunday Mega E&P – and Fred

So I am back in Brooklyn after vacation (Nizuc Resort, Cancun), needless to say muttering and grumbling to myself. We left some calls hanging before the week away, updated in this note. It was a week this past week where performance reverted to year-to-date performance (see first chart);  we are still bullish US natgas, led by AR, bullish Oxy led by Warren Buffett, bullish the US oil sector on the structural improvement in the companies […]

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4:02 PM

Morning Nizuc

One of the many lessons of Wall Street, is “don’t expect any sympathy”. This is more sharply put: “If you want a friend, buy a f#^@*# dog.” I’ve got two dogs. As I have been proclaiming, this is a long summer. We don’t have Labor Day until September 5th, and with me stewing nicely in Brooklyn with the dogs, thinking of what fun the run is from Labor Day to Christmas, to be in NYC […]

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7:35 PM

Morning Pain Trade

Delighted to say that Dr James Henderson is on Happy Hour Strategy Session tonight, A PREMIUM EVENT. Jim is currently Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, alongside his consultancy work and professorships. When: this evening, Aug 11, 2022 05:00 PM ET, Zoom, Register in advance: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0sd-CtpjsrGdVM0p-MsG1P4WU0dr3hBWq3 ~ One of my favourite concepts on Wall St (or should I say hated?), is the “pain trade.” I first heard of it 20 years ago and […]

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10:09 AM

Morning Data Centers

We are looking for a big fat gasoline demand bounceback number this week in the DOE data, seeing as this morning my Deli guy told me the DOE gasoline numbers are understated. Thanking him, I noted that DINO management (HollyFrontier) confirmed on their results call yesterday that gasoline demand is at worst around 5% below 2019 (not 2020, as appears in the DOE) levels, and in some of their markets – and they have a […]

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9:12 AM

What are you doing? Reading transcripts

The two weeks, mid-earnings, when we pull together company results transcript comments, are not a science, they are an impressionistic art; a colour to our themes. Basically these are comments that caught our eye over the past week. Like sellside analysts, the companies tend to all present the same more-or-less generic message, but occasionally, as we strive with Sankey Research, a comment stands out, is differentiated, or so wild that it is worthy of note. […]

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2:25 PM

Morning Miss

Tonight Happy Hour: Kathleen Kelley on OPEC. Frank Kelly (invited) on Washington DC – lots of action there. View share on results on what happens next. Today Thursday 4th August 5pm Eastern. Register for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUkc-qvqjgrH9NWL5mVuMMR2AyR3q1cZrtm I was on Bloomberg TV bright and early this morning and… I used the “B” word. Just to note, we are long natgas over oil into the coming economic slowdown, and playing for winter. The announcement that Freeport […]

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8:30 AM

Morning Take a Sad Song

Tomorrow KelleyKelly Hour: Kathleen Kelley on OPEC. Frank Kelly on Washington DC – lots of action there. View share from clients on results and what they expect next. Tomorrow Thursday 4th August 5pm Eastern. Register for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUkc-qvqjgrH9NWL5mVuMMR2AyR3q1cZrtm We increasingly think that we will favour buyback-heavy oils going into the second half, with our year starting, as always, day after Labor Day. What happens next? The Big Oils are all singing from the same […]

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9:23 AM

Sunday Carnasie

Big week for what should be terrific oil earnings this week. Watching Iraq Highlight charts – market rebounding, oils catching a bid ~ Week ahead: It’s good to see that oil earnings have worked back onto generalist earnings calendars, as shown from “Earnings Whispers” below. Devon aftermarket Monday sure, BP, Marathon Petroleum and Oxy Tuesday, etc, but believe me, a year ago Berry and Callon did not make these lists (see Wednesday below). Marathon Oil […]

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4:11 PM

Say what? Not there yet… Q2 2022 so far

This note outlines the mega-themes that are emerging mid-way through oils’ reporting season. We listened to a lot of calls, read A LOT of transcripts, and distill it here, for your Saturday afternoon reading by the pool on your yacht. Last evening I reflected that this weekend I was as likely to bit hit by a massive piece of falling Chinese space debris, as to win the mega-millions and get my own yacht with pool. […]

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2:52 PM

Sunday In Space

Greetings fellow earthlings, (Dow Jones WSJ 7/17/22) — Investors hoping a strong start to earnings season would jolt the stock market from its slump haven’t gotten much satisfaction. Early reports from U.S. companies have refocused attention on some of the biggest challenges facing businesses, from the threat of an economic slowdown to the pressure that rising costs are putting on corporate profits. JPMorgan Chase, Delta Air Lines and industrial supplier Fastenal are among those last […]

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3:43 PM

Sunday Cedric

Good Day! You only get so many summers in life – a beautiful Sunday in mid-July, we should be at the beach or pondering the Wimbledon final. Hopefully you are on a yacht or at a swim-up bar as you read this. Here in Brooklyn Heights/Brooklyn Bridge Park they have recreated The Hill at Wimbledon with a big screen to watch tennis. Packed today. Tourists are returning en masse to New York. Week past: the […]

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12:43 PM

Morning SPR

Good to see oil holding, we have broken the bottom of our $110/bbl-$150/bbl range for Brent this summer, but news out of China is positive both in terms of higher oil demand and re-iterated low oil product export quotas. These product export quotas are some 40% below last year levels and underline that Beijing is moving away from energy-intense processing and exports, prioritizing its own air quality and environmental issues. Quotas are cut from 37Mt […]

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9:24 AM

Sunday Brooklyn Heights

Back in Brooklyn, Happy July 4th weekend, insert my annual joke about my not recognising US independence, or Make America Great Britain Again. Harry and Meghan’s second kid is eligible to be a female US President, being born in California. Based on the recent candidates, not just the winning ones but the primaries, just about anybody will do better than the current political class. Enough, let’s take a quick look at the first half. As […]

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1:30 PM

Morning Mr Jones

Briefly noted: Gazprom shares plummet -25% as shareholders reject record dividend plan Uniper, largest German buyer of Russian gas, shares plummet -18% as it says it is receiving just 40% of volumes ordered from Gazprom After two weeks in the dark, with no weekly oil data published, the US Department of Energy released the backlog yesterday. The DOE was keen to stress the “systems outage” was not a hack. Better not be, DOE manages emergency […]

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8:08 AM

Morning Wimbledon

Good to see the oils stabilising and bouncing this week, with Brent crude prices holding the bottom of our $110-$150/bbl range for summer. It is clear that to get past the $130/bbl peak Ukraine fear price we hit in early March 2022, will more likely be a squeezing grind higher on strong demand and weak supply, than another spike shock, although these are always possible in oil. With that said, let’s face it, just about […]

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6:59 AM

Morning Hyde Park

Greetings from Hyde Park, We are back in London, Paris was controversial; Patricia considers it the greatest most wonderful place on earth, I get into arguments with Parisians, Selloff dynamics Hess reminder Phillips 66 Comments Morocco? Algeria It’s only rock ‘n’ and I’m 80 On the selloff: To me, the charts are not broken, but we nibbled 5% of the S&P500, then collapsed back to just over 4.1%. It is actually barely visible on the […]

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11:47 AM

Sunday Marrakesh

Greetings from La Villa des Orangers, Medina (Old Town), Marrakesh, Today – are the big E&Ps cheap? Antero LNG exports – 70mmcfd or 1bcf/d? Postcard from Morocco They say if you want a question answered on the internet, don’t ask the question, but rather post a bold false statement, and you will be flooded with corrections. It is an interesting point on human psychology. Earlier this week we said that Antero was exporting 1bcf/d of […]

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10:06 AM

Private vs Public, Cash vs Multiple

Libya down by 1mb/d, maybe President Biden should visit? APA (Apache Oil) duster in Suriname is unfortunate for the marginal mega-bull case BP – like Shell, the non-alcoholic beer of big oils – sells out of Canadian Oil Sands but increases exposure to Western Canada offshore OKLAHOMA CITY, June 14, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has received a non-binding proposal letter, dated June […]

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8:34 AM

Fortunes lost, and won

January 6th 2021, my personal story, or how the best call of my career cost me a lifetime fortune. DINO, how HollyFrontier won a lifetime fortune Starting with DINO, we had “me old mucker” Rich Voliva, CFO on Strategy Session last evening. He has always been impressive, and we had to laugh about him writing a searing indictment of US ethanol policy, as part of our sellside refining team at Deutsche Bank, when it was […]

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9:50 AM

Fancy meeting you here

Just as I was muttering that there is not much happening, it all kicks off. Notably the fire and outage at Freeport LNG yesterday caused a sudden sell-off in natgas prices. “If it is burning live on TV, it moves the market”. Over/under on the outage is 3 weeks, which is very minor in the grand scheme of things, but a big deal at the margin when natgas prices are screaming at $9.50/mmbtu. Freeport LNG […]

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9:55 AM

Terribly sorry, but what is the speed limit?

Tomorrow Zoom Strategy Session: Rich Voliva, CFO HollyFrontier. Thursday Jun 9, 2022 05:00 PM ET Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0kduyprj4uHNTcVO53YRKHbhYSRWHUiIX1 Tonight, quick meeting with Uzi, and Blake, CEO and IR of Delek. I had texted about the story in Tradewinds that they were getting into Jones Act shipping. Apparently they bought a couple of barges that are “not material, especially not in the context of today’s margins”. Lucked into a quick catch up […]

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8:55 AM

Early June Sunday

June, A beautiful day here in Brooklyn Heights, I wish you a wonderful Sunday. I always maintain that if you ignored the media, you would think it’s a wonderful world. And it is! That said, I am enjoying the mass media coverage of the Jubilee. BREAKING NEWS: QUEEN WAVES FROM BALCONY. Headline on my screen here. And we are kicking ourselves for not being in London, given my mother lives right on Hyde Park, in […]

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3:05 PM

Rose Tonight: Tourmaline

Tonight, in conversation, the CEO of Tourmaline, Mike Rose, carrying an extremely high reputation. Also CFO Brian Robinson, and Scott Kirker Chief Legal Officer. We also really like IR Jamie Heard, who clearly gets it. 5/26, 5PM EST – Sankey Strategy Session: Tourmaline Oil (TOU) CEO, CFO, CLO, IR Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZAtd-qgrTgiGt1U3rdbkLIZZZRt5VcpfcKR 6/2, 5PM EST – Sankey Strategy Session Bob McNally, President, Rapidan Group Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUud-iopzIjHtwxZSBacic_3OqJmo5vAzQj […]

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11:33 AM

Sit Chat Get Banged

Strategy Session was back to the round table stock discussion. It was sufficiently enjoyable that we will now have a monthly round table on stock ideas. Next week we have Tourmaline, week after Bob McNally. In between, Memorial Day is a week Monday, check the whites in your wardrobe and start yelling at the pool guy’s voicemail. Companies mentioned last night: Long Inventory E&P’s. We discussed oil volatility and beta skew as oil holds over […]

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10:47 AM
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