Recent Posts

Pioneer-Parsley & History

Breaking news: WSJ October 18th 2020 Pioneer Natural Resources is in talks to buy Parsley Energy, according to people familiar with the matter, as a wave of consolidation takes hold in the beleaguered oil patch. Word from the oil field is the deal was due to be announced last week and got sidelined by COP-CXO. (Twitter). M&A stories in the WSJ are considered the most reliable of any business new source. Last week they were […]

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8:11 AM

WEO Woah Woe Sankey

One of the cool things about experience in energy that goes back 30 years now, is that long term energy forecasts have come, and gone. Fifteen years ago, I obtained ExxonMobil’s 1980 energy outlook (to 2010), which was fascinating. It correctly predicted $100/bbl oil prices, but unfortunately missed the first move to $10/bbl (1986). CEO Lee Raymond swore never to use an oil price forecast again. At the IEA in the early 1990s, I worked […]

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8:47 AM

Sunday Sankey 10/4/20

Obviously, the week ahead will be dominated by the twin horsemen of COVID and bailout. We are making history. In this note, XOM is now worth less than Jeff Bezos, even after his divorce. Nextera has become the largest energy stock in the US. We also show XOM compared to Big Tobacco, to show this is not all ESG. The oil market looks rough, as we had warned all summer, it would be post Labor […]

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11:24 AM

Morning Sankey Wainscott

The US government Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has projected that some 2,000 offshore wind turbines will generate 22GW of power by 2030 for the US. Its hardly surprising that BP has bought into this spectacular growth, which fits right into their low carbon shift in the 2030 timeframe. Reminder, in a September 10th press release, BP announced it would pay $1.1bn for a 50% stake in Equinor’s 2 GW Empire Wind, located off […]

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8:25 AM

Sunday Sankey 8/30/20

Good day, welcome to the week of summer shut down on Wall Street, The usual variety of great slides in the  Sunday Sankey this week, and an entreaty to “play the game” this week of taking vacation. If we all do it, we can overcome. The personal story is a lot longer this week, because as regular clients will remember, “the only person who talks more than me, is my mother.” After I noted that […]

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11:36 AM

Sunday Sankey 8/23/20

This week we can hardly avoid the elevated market levels, the all-time record of growth over value, and the general unease on Wall Street at the nature of current markets. I had the privilege and pleasure of chatting to a favourite client and senior world-famous investor yesterday, quarantined as he is in the Hamptons, and he said in his long career he has never seen anything like this, but that you have to assume that […]

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12:14 PM

Morning Lumber 8/17/20

With our “new 1950s” theme of US suburbanisation, featured in the Sunday Sankey last week as this week sees many suburban stocks reporting (Home Dept, Lowes), we got some feedback on our lumber price boom commentary yesterday. One thing that your energy transition former oil analyst immediately noticed when he looks at the discussion around lumber prices: nobody mentions the US$. With marginal supply coming from Canada, a quick screen on the DXY trade-weighted US$ […]

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9:09 AM

Sunday Sankey 8/16/20

With several “suburban stocks” reporting next week, Home Depot, Walmart, Lowes, Target, this week our “New 1950s” theme gets a run, with additional slides on derivatives such as lumber and copper. Notably lumber prices are skyrocketing, and we once again highlight that wood produces more electricity than wind in the US, and that wood with biomass is the largest part of of US “renewable” electricty generation (see slides within). Continue reading

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9:57 AM

Morning Sankey 7/17/20

As we expected since May, as basically happens every year, oil prices run into Memorial Day and then stall out. Same for this year, so in writing about oil in June, it was clear that around $40/bbl was about as good as it would get for 2020, with such major overhangs on supply, never mind the vagaries of demand recovery. One of the major drivers of the run from negative -$37/bbl to +$37 a barrel […]

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8:20 AM
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