Recent Posts

Sunday Sankey 9/19/21

Quick Sunday Sankey today. If you want to read more, yesterday there was a long email on Europe vs US energy transition dynamics with a focus on two leaders: UK and Germany. Emailed yesterday on the web at www.sankeyresearch.com It has occurred to me that we may just enter a long, grinding, bear market, as stretched valuations and lack of new marginal buyers slowly erode the market. I mean like a 1970s multi-year market deflation. […]

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1:43 PM

London Sankey 9/5/21

Enjoy the last weekend of summer, beautiful day here in London, readying ourselves for next week with a slew of oil corporate oil & energy newsflow in “conference season” starting with this week’s traditional “Lehman Conference”, as we oil old schoolers know it. For my entire career, the Lehman conference has occupied the oil/energy week after Labor Day. Post-Labor Day, for me, as a research analyst, opens the Wall Street year, back when it culminated […]

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12:08 PM

Sunday Siesta 8/15/21

Welcome to mid-August, I am taking it easy for a couple of weeks. Good week ahead for fishing offshore Ixtapa on the Pacific. Really nothing on the calendar next week for oil analysts unless we stretch to retail such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, all reporting. Roblox is an interesting company. A call last week from the White House for OPEC+ to produce more oil and for the FTC to investigate high pump prices […]

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7:23 PM

About as American as it gets*

Good day! Happy Hour tonight if you fancy a chat. No special guest, but I am in an extremely good mood as tomorrow I head back to Mexico to go fishing offshore Ixtapa on the Pacific Coast. I hope you are getting some time in August, and the market gods give us quiet volumes and a gentle drift higher. Happy hour registration Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIocuuprTooG9SqNZxj9rgUjl9KZxTOEHAJ The Vix looks more and more tempting, but making money from […]

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2:39 PM

Forced Labour vs First Solar

China: no Totalitarian regime has ever survived long term, much less thrived. Ex-China, just about the one remaining global totalitarian state is North Korea, which is maintained by China as a buffer. It stands in contrast to South Korea as a testimony to totalitarianism vs democracy. North Korean GDP per capita is $1,300, vs South Korea at $31,000. So the question is, when will China collapse on itself? Certainly, its demography is weak, and we […]

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9:09 AM

Sunday Sankey 7/25/21

Greetings, It is all about the presentation this week; please click on the attached file for a look at what is in store for the week ahead – earnings; OPEC chat; what to buy when US natgas prices hit $4/mmbtu, which they did this past week; factor performance disconnection; and our only solution since we wrote The Renaissance Thesis of US E&P in 2017, namely hard cash return to shareholders. These oils have to bribe […]

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12:39 PM

Market to Government: “FEED ME SEYMOUR”

In the valuation Little Shop of Horrors environment we live, the monstrous plant of the market needs the government to feed it constantly. It was pointed out yesterday with me in conversation on this government-driven environment, that the recent rollover in value vs growth indexes occurred right when The Parliamentarian – the voice of the Senate – declared a claim by Chuck Schumer that an obscure procedure to allow a second reconciliation to pass an […]

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9:06 AM

Travels with Eric Blair 7/18/21

They say, if you are the manager of a rock band, and the drummer comes to you and says “…I’ve been thinking…”, It’s over. Yes, with a week off in Mexico, I’ve been thinking. One thing that helped me think, I deleted the Twitter app from my iPhone. It was a great move, so that rather than only increasing the constant noise that we face covering markets, when I would instinctively check my phone, my […]

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1:32 PM

Postcard from Mexico 7/11/21

Things in Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico, are okay, the upper-middle-class here do not like Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) but ultimately, as we know, do politicians make a difference? Yes and no. Things are never as bad as you fear, and never as good as you hope. Broadly speaking, thinkgs are okay. Mexico has a major population – 127m – and huge natural resources, particularly we note agriculture, major wealth. There is a large […]

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4:11 PM

Manana Sankey 7/6/21

Reading back on my Sunday note, I did a horrible job of highlighting the link to the “Oils share of the S&P500 earnings vs oil’s share of the S&P500” presentation that was attached. One key highlight was to buy Pioneer and EOG and to be negative on Oxy. The non-consensus call was bullish Apache. We were also cautious refiners. Here is the note which is a short presentation of all the charts. This is a […]

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9:57 AM

Morning Sankey 6/30/21

ConocoPhillips is hosting a market update call today at 10am ET, and the press release reads great. I hate to repeat a press release, but this one is so pretty, and concise, it bears highlighting. Increasing anticipated Concho transaction-related synergies and savings to $1 billion annually; Reducing 2021 capital expenditures and adjusted operating cost guidance by $200 million and $100 million, respectively, due to stronger-than-projected business execution; Increasing 2021 planned share repurchases by $1 billion, […]

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9:54 AM

Sunday Sankey 6/27/21

Please join the Sankey Research party in DUMBO this Thursday as we celebrate the crazy past year, since first publishing the first Morning Sankey as independent research, on the Friday, of July 4th weekend 2020. What a muted occasion that was. Now New York is raving, and that is before international tourists return. RSVP for the party. It’s meant as an opportunity for people to come to see the remarkably transformed and very cool Brooklyn […]

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1:27 PM

Morning Sankey 6/24/21

Tonight 5pm June 24th on Happy Hour we have Charif Souki, Chairman and co-founder of Tellurian, the integrated Haynesville gas-to Driftwood LNG export project play. Should be a great chat! Register here Charif Souki on Sankey Happy Hour Next week, on Thursday July 1st, please attend the Sankey Research 1st anniversary party in Dumbo, Brooklyn. Email me for details on this informal get-together in one of the great destinations in NYC. Guess who is talking […]

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10:15 AM

Sunday Sankey 6/20/21

Happy Father’s Day, Markets are roiling on Fed comments, and how we get off the heroin of money printing to stimulate the economy. It will be very hard, and markets clearly will not like it. We hosted Steve Levine on Happy Hour this past week, he’s excellent. He does not support my argument made on Thursday last week in the morning note, that EV adoption by consumers will be slow. He asserts that EVs will […]

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3:03 PM

Sunday Sankey 6/13/21

The note today is delayed by England vs Croatia, thankfully the currently ongoing Austria vs North Macedonia game is not imperative for me to watch.  There are some great slides in today’s presentation. For example on how solar projects do not deliver their IRR, on worrying Indian oil demand, on the global petchem balance by company, and our new mega-theme, of new young CEOs following through on our “Renaissance” theme of US E&Ps. This new […]

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2:22 PM

Morning Sankey 6/10/21

Well, I made it to and from Texas Tuesday/Wednesday, getting back yesterday evening, which was a Board speech and dinner at a famous country club. But the flights were pretty hellish, be warned. My outbound was cancelled, which bounced me to economy, Those tiny first class cabins are 4x over-booked. Newark TSA was typically crammed, it turns out my Global Entry is expired, putting me in the line of people wearing lace-up boots and multiple […]

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9:05 AM

Memorial Monday Sankey 5/31/21

OIL RISK HIGH. We have an OPEC meeting tomorrow, and the word is that Iran is pumping into storage on anticipation of successful negotiations with the Biden administration, which, for reasons I do not fully understand, is very keen to make a nuclear deal. This will allow Iran back into global oil markets. We understand that OPEC is warning Iran not to flood the market, and Iran is saying “we are going to flood the […]

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1:34 PM

Sunday Sankey 5/23/21

Watching Iran, but 1mb/d of oil exports are already in the market. Huge week ahead for ExxonMobil, with the Shareholder Meeting and board vote on Wednesday this week. We wrote about it on Thursday, see the note on www.sankeyresearch.com or emailed. Noted that Halliburton shareholders rejected the company’s pay proposal last week, which is encouraging. The pay of oil executives relative to shareholder returns has been an abomination for years. Executives should try a few […]

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12:19 PM

Sunday Sankey 5/16/21

Good day, The week ended with the guided announcement from Marathon Petroleum that its deal with Seven & i to sell the massive Speedway gasoline retail network had closed for $21bn cash, and upside guidance from Marathon Petroleum on an imminent Dutch Auction for $4bn of stock, within a $10bn open buyback authorization. It was uncertain how much debt would be paid down, but that was announced light at $2.5bn. MPLX, the 63% MPC-owned MLP, […]

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12:59 PM

Friday Sankey 5/14/21

“Darling I think the new clothes drier is shrinking my clothes.” “No honey, that is caused by the fridge.” On the other side: “Does this outfit make me look fat?” “No your fat makes you look fat.” Don’t spell part backwards. It’s a trap. Our tortoise was falling in love, but now he’s only falling apart. There’s nothing I can do, it’s a turtle eclipse of the heart. Yesterday it felt like the market confirmed […]

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8:28 AM

Sunday Sankey 5/2/21

All presentation today, see attached link, after the Sunny Saturday Sankey published yesterday and emailed to you, outlined the past week. The week ahead is extremely busy with results – you can see my diary in the attached presentation. The monster week of earnings is behind us, with impressive results from FMAGA – Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Alphabet. Week ahead also has Secretary of State Blinken travelling to Ukraine. “I can’t tell you that we […]

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12:25 PM

Sunday Sankey 4/25/21

Monster week of earnings ahead, a clash in the titanic battle of growth vs value. The forces of growth over-ran us values, but we started a fightback that saw several battles won since the terrible relative lows of August 2020. In Q1 this year, value began to rampage against growth. April has seen a growth fightback, with the US$ holding and US interest rates even rallying. I asked a market player if he was bullish […]

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1:52 PM

Morning Sankey 4/20/21

Staring at the blinking red and green Bloomberg ticks, alone in a home office, bombarded with Bitcoin headlines, Gamestop headlines, etc etc, it had become very difficult to make out the wood from the trees regarding the oil and energy call. I went on a road trip. I’m back. As suspected, the oils and energy have been tricky – notably solar has been ugly for the past month and year to date, albeit off a […]

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8:42 AM

Sunday Sankey 4/11/21

This week I am heading to Oklahoma to meet Devon CEO Rick Muncrief and then Houston to bid farewell to outgoing ConocoPhillips COO Matt Fox. Opposite ends of the spectrum for me – never met Rick, have hung out many times over the years with Mr. Fox. The lowlight in professional terms with Matt was doing the first marketing trip for COP in NYC after the dividend cut in 2016. The highlight was Matt making […]

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1:36 PM

Sunday Sankey 4/4/21

Greetings on Easter Sunday, The oil market got excited at the end of the week with the OPEC decision, basically because the “Saudi Put” remains in place, with the tapering of OPEC and particularly Saudi cuts extended through July. While surprised at the scale of the bullish reaction, given that the market had anticipated a rollover of cuts, it has been notable that oil prices have held the $60/bbl range pretty firmly with a bouncing […]

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12:26 PM

The cliché-myth of the Roaring 2020s

History does not repeat, but it rhymes. Consideration of the Roaring 1920s makes it clear that the major technological, economic, and social advancements of the era were remarkable. There was an incredible convergence of technological development combined with an economic boom into an upsurge of social liberalism. Equally, the Roaring 1920s came after the great 1918 influenza (H1N1) avian-origin flu pandemic of 1918-1919. There is a synchronous argument that says the global economy recovering from […]

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9:10 AM

Sunday Sankey 3/28/21

Hello Happy Sunday, Calling oil has become very tricky in the short term. Never mind the wider market, where the steadily winning value-over-growth trade has found a new level and turned into a daily battleground. Recently growth has taken a stand, but we think it is doomed. Basically, every time you see 40x EBITDA+ multiples, it’s just a question of how long you can stay solvent vs market irrationality. There are maybe five stocks every […]

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1:20 PM

Sunday Sankey 3/21/21

Morning! Iran and China. Mr. Biden has his hands full with Putin asking for a live debate further to Biden being asked “is Putin a killer?”, that caused Russia to immediately withdraw its US ambassador. Big week for global geopolitics. There is no question that China is becoming ever-more diplomatically, geopolitically, aggressive on a sustained rising basis, and buying oil from Iran through smuggling is clearly at the top of the defiant self-interest list. Official […]

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12:36 PM

Sunday Sankey 3/7/21

This past week saw the worst market for US crude since modern records begin in 1990. We saw the lowest US domestic crude oil demand in thirty years or more. Who would have known it from the oil price action and oil market mood? Right when the scale of the Texas crisis hit, in terms of lost power, I was writing to you and on Bloomberg TV saying that this is a full-scale national crisis, […]

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12:19 PM

Morning Sankey 3/5/21

It’s Friday. What do you call an overweight kidney doctor who also predicts the weather? A meaty urologist. My thoughts on Mongolian poetry: It has its prose and its Khans. Why do astronauts use Linux? Because you can’t open Windows in space. Noted: Ovintiv results this morning, former rival big oil analyst, and buddy, Kate Minyard has been appointed to the board at the behest of activist Kimmeridge’s Mark Viviano. Viviano/Kimmeridge publish excellent “white papers” […]

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8:55 AM

Sunday Sankey 2/28/21

One great business for sure is going to be lubricants for windmills. Guess who dominates the specialty oil lubes for windmills market? ExxonMobil. Guess who has their annual analyst day this week? ExxonMobil. March 3rd 9am Eastern, we get the latest iteration of The Big Unit’s story. Will they, like $EOG, get attracted like a moth to the flame of promising growth? We suspect ExxonMobil will, not that we have a problem with their Guyana […]

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12:01 PM

Sunday Sankey 2/21/21

Enjoyed making the slides today, take a look. Slide 1: John Hopkins Professor expects US herd immunity by April. Remember how quickly SARS disappeared? Fingers crossed. This past week we have highlighted QuantumScape $QS the solid state battery play, and did so again Thursday, and we “found the short” as they say. The heated email from a client arrived in response with 10 minutes. “It’s a joke.” He was referring to valuation. But in this […]

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10:39 AM

Morning Sankey 2/17/21

The current energy crisis is much bigger than most people realize. This is a global crisis. The largest energy outage in US history. In the middle of a brutal winter, globally. Stay tuned, this crisis is just starting. An outage of this scale in Texas is world scale. The entire US and Atlantic Basin energy market is based on a core of Texas/US Gulf Coast. A lot of the debate currently is, as so often […]

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8:37 AM

Sunday Sankey 2/7/21

Snowing again here in Brooklyn Heights. One thing that is very striking in this week’s charts is the 6-10 Day weather forecast for North America. It is freeeeezing. Bluest map I can remember publishing, and we publish it just about every week in mid-winter and high summer. As noted our Happy Hour this past week was very bullish oil, basically the call is that oil just went up 15% in a month and is rising […]

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11:32 AM

Morning Sankey 2/4/21

Shell results, meh. We argue that to out-perform, Big Euro Oils need major US fund managers buying at the margin. For ever, Euro oils have looked cheap relative to US. It never changes. See chart below, the same at the most extreme applies to Russian oils. Right now, Big US buyers are either not buying any oil, buying oil leverage, or buying ExxonMobil. The Supermajor Euro oils are not attractive, ex TOTAL. The track record […]

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9:11 AM

Sunday Sankey 1/31/21

The feeling is that oil price action this past week was very bullish given that it is traditionally-weak January and it held up vs US$ up and market down moves. Major clients are highlighting SPACs. We see the SPAC route as a major outlet to address the market imbalance between investment $ seeking renewable energy opportunities, and lack of renewable energy market cap plays. In today’s Sunday Sankey we replicate several slides published by Houston […]

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11:55 AM

Friday Sankey 1/29/21

Yep! It’s Friday! I called the RobinHood helpline about Gamestop and they said “Please Hold”. Got it. I want to put my life savings into the stock – its called Gamespot Total Landscaping right? The Biden team is monitoring the Gamestop situation and will let the American people know when it is time to buy a Legend of Zelda chess set in a dented box. AMC is issuing a ton of stock, but Gamestop is […]

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8:50 AM

Morning Sankey 1/28/21

Quote of the day: SINGAPORE, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Shares in small Australian nickel and cobalt explorer GME Resources GME.AX jumped as much as 53% on Thursday, apparently driven by the similarity of its stock ticker code to U.S. retail investor darling GameStop GME.N. Looking forward to Happy Hour tonight! This should be a good one. As always 5pm – please register interest. Just ping me an email to join, it is a great client-only […]

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8:45 AM

Morning Methane Limits

DC chat today, it’s Friday! Travelling to Atlanta via Washington and Durham today with son Max. I accidentally sprayed my son’s deodorant into my mouth this morning. Now when I talk I have this weird Axe scent. If you lose one of your senses, your other senses are heightened. That’s why people with no sense of humour have a heightened sense of self-importance. I told my wife I was making a bicycle out of spaghetti. […]

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7:12 AM

Sunday Sankey 1/17/21

Trying to get up this morning, I was pondering whether the US military could split and part go renegade. However we continue to believe the US constitution will prevail. Rather a negative start to the day, but I moved on to put together the Sunday Sankey for you, with energy, be it alternative, or regular oil and gas, starting the year very well. We continue to be obsessive about the US$ impact on oil prices, […]

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12:06 PM

Sunday Sankey 1/10/21

Good morning, The first working week in January is always a crazy week for this analyst, and by Monday afternoon, having run five 1×1 fireside chats with five refining CEOs, I was already joking that I was ready for my year end vacation. Then, from nowhere, Saudi unilaterally cut production on Tuesday 5th January at the now-monthly OPEC+ meeting, the afternoon as we rounded out the conference with a 1×1 with Valero management that morning. […]

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12:40 PM

Morning Sankey 1/7/21

We always thought that Donald Trump would be massively disruptive, but that the genius US government system would survive the test, and boy did we get that in spades! The “Duck Dynasty Coup” was very reminiscent of the “They will Bomb Iran!” counter-question, which was “What will they do on Day 2?” It was always a brilliant counterpoint to a syndrome that horribly played out in Iraq. While George W Bush declared “Mission Accomplished”, there […]

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8:23 AM

Morning Saudi Did What?

Sankey raising Brent oil price forecast to $54/bbl for 2021 (from $45) and $58/bbl for 2022 (from $56). Sankey raising WTI oil price forecast to $52/bbl for 2021 (from $42) and $55/bbl for 2022 (unch). It’s difficult to unpack what just happened to oil markets in terms of Saudi Arabia’s shock move to unilaterally “gift” cut production by 1mb/d for February and March; right down to 8.1mb/d, the very low of their historic production levels. […]

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8:41 AM

Friday before Xmas Sankey

Call to start 2021: our refining conference features all six independent refiners at CEO level. Sankey fireside chats back to back. Please join, you will start 2021 with a great understanding of markets, notable oil and and renewable diesel, but much more besides. I’ve got a case of Corona and I am not going to work today. I’m not sick, I’m just taking the day off to drink the whole case. Customer at a farmer’s […]

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8:28 AM

Mornin’ Changin’

Washington DC vs Wall St. Renewables stocks are ripping on word of early progress on both energy and infrastructure bills in Washington DC. Clients are talking Sunrun and all solar, $TAN the solar ETF. Daqo New Energy the Chinese silicon/solar play is almost off the chart in the past 5 days – +35%. (see below) There has been a huge move in Enphase Energy $ENPH past week, as well as $SPWR, $NOVA, $SEDG and Canadian […]

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9:02 AM

Sunday Sankey 12/13/20

Last week we highlighted the difference between speculation and investment. We continue that theme with six Big Oil investment picks for 2021, and six speculative picks. We defer on refining until our January 4th refining conference. NOTE we have verbal confirmation from Greg Goff, that he will join the conference for a fireside chat. See inside for details, and register on the website www.sankeyresearch.com Greg and I have to discuss what we discuss, as there […]

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12:18 PM

Morning DC

Gyms should be allowed to stay open during COVID. The constitution guarantees freedom of the press. Who is Irish and stays out all night? Patty O’Furniture What is Beethoven’s favorite fruit? Ba-na-na-naaaa Further to our bullish refining commentary yesterday on net operating losses (NOLs) carry-forward for refiners, and E&Ps for that matter, meaning that companies will pay little or no income tax through 2021 and beyond, a client notes that “the CARES Act allow refiners […]

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8:42 AM

Sunday Sankey 12/6/20

New mega-theme: Big Doctor is watching you. See below. Note also that for all the words in this letter, the attached presentation is all pictures. We know you are busy and need the key ideas fast. Thanks for reading. Sankey Research subsists entirely by taking Excel, Word, Powerpoint, a Bloomberg Terminal, leading journal subscriptions, and the internet, and writing research from scratch, for sharing ideas. Please support me, aka PAY. Otherwise you are stealing my […]

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12:40 PM

Morning Sankey 11/24/20

The oils continue to be lively driven by the surprising up-move in Brent & WTI crude prices, that has come at a point that looked by some measures to be max bearish. If you recall, over the last days of October, Brent fell from $43/bbl to $37/bbl and looked like it might have a run at $30/bbl, COVID resurging, Europe shutting down. Libya roaring back with 1mb/d incremental light-sweet supply. That bearish Atlantic Basin picture […]

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8:18 AM

Sunday Sankey 11/22/20

Good day from Brooklyn Heights, Enjoy life, look up and consider what to you is everything right now. Live in the present. I have a professional friend who was one of the dominant hedge fund managers in oil during the legendary 2003-2008 oil bull run. As the true legend goes, he ran $1bn levered in oil equities on his right hand, and $1bn levered in oil commodity on his left. So it was understood. They […]

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1:23 PM
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