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Sunday Fall Sankey

Good Day The Sunday Sankey is macro heavy but starts with the micro oil story of the past week and quite possibly next week: Conoco-Concho. The rumored (Bloomberg) takeover was covered in three consecutive notes last week, and is now rumoured (Bloomberg) to be imminent. We shall see. That starts, but there is a ton of macro stuff in the Sunday Sankey ppt. Take a look. As the market closed Friday, $EOG spiked, and the […]

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11:57 AM

“Happy” Hour & Friday

When Kasparov beat Carlsen I cheered so much I lost my voice. Now I am a hoarse chess nut. Kermit the Frog playing Hamlet got great reviews. It was a ribbeting performance. My friend wants to dress as an island off the coast of Italy for Halloween. I told him not to be Sicily. Happy Hour Comments and Why is Concho selling itself? We had a real live oil trader to start Happy Hour last […]

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9:10 AM

Morning Bullish Sankey

Very interesting Happy Hour yesterday… and an overwhelming sense of bullishness swept over me! How can this be when the oil market is still struggling so badly? Well… a couple of things. But first, it’s Friday, and this is the Friday Sankey, so its JOKE TIME. What’s the biggest lie in American politics in 2020? You have 2 minutes uninterrupted.Please respond to your opponent’s total ignoring of the question. You have two minutes.A fly on […]

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8:27 AM

Tesla vs ExxonMobil Porcupine Battle I

Looking at the future of US gasoline demand, I got sucked into the history of Tesla’s SEC filings essentially with a view to replicating my notorious chart of ExxonMobil’s volumes since 2000, vs their annual analyst meeting target for volumes. The dreaded porcupine chart, which has no more inappropriate quill than the last, which was repeated at the March 2020 analyst meeting at peak COVID in NYC. ExxonMobil’s volumes vs their analyst meeting targets As […]

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10:25 AM

Friday Air Sankey

Well indeed, there are a lot of jokes out there this morning… you can say the news has gone viral. However, given our self-imposed standards of taste and decency, we will limit the news jokes to non-Presidential. If you’re driving a stolen Tesla… Would it be called an Edison? Mark Zuckerberg is in a car accident. Guy : “Let’s exchange personal details” Mark : “You are Scott Thomas, you have 237 friends out of which […]

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10:23 AM

Propane Sankey

Yet another bull point on propane. The Morning Sankey goes down the rabbit hole. New York City has made outdoor dining permanent, and the City has lifted the post-911 ban on propane canisters in Manhattan (welders were excepted). With indoor dining limited to 25% capacity, operating restaurants are dependent on outdoor dining, and there has been a scramble to buy propane heaters. My neighbour manages three restaurants and said he was about to buy 15 […]

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10:02 AM

Morning Mini Sankey 9/22/20

Today, on Tesla battery day, a quick look at electric car economics. Why are so few electric cars sold? Because they are more expensive. Why when the fuel economics are so over-powering, are so few taxis electric? Because electric cars take too long to fill for taxi drivers. Why does this matter? Because the single largest part of the world oil market is US gasoline. As shown below, the red balloon is North American gasoline, […]

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9:15 AM

Sunday Sankey 9/20/20

Good day! A chill September wind is blowing across Brooklyn Heights, as summer officially ends and fall very much starts. The market is feeling chills too, with COVID continuing to present a major challenge to policy-makers globally. We remain extremely frustrated by the excessive lock down requirements in New York despite effectively zero COVID. With massive testing, less than 1% positives are being found, and essentially no deaths (statistically speaking). This past week we quoted […]

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11:37 AM

Let me fly!

The future of global energy, key focus points: Battlegrounds: EU, US, China, India. Reminder: nearly 60% of Chinese and Indian energy still comes from coal. Or, as a refining CEO tells us “China has more coal-fired power plants under construction, than the US has coal-fired power plants”. Noted, US is still 12% coal-fired, vs 9% renewable (total energy balance). In this note, jet fuel demand. Jet is the key to the future of global oil. […]

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9:04 AM

Where is oil as Laura hits? Morning Sankey 8/27/20

Corporate newsflow remains quiet, with the market awaiting more details on the historic announcement from BP on its climate change plans, due September 14th-16th. Several major US oil investors consider this BP move a 100-year strategy shift for big oil. Notably the stunning -40% oil and gas production reduction, as a strategy pillar. US investors remain cynical, the most negative seeing the announcement as a smokescreen for the dividend cut. Elsewhere re-injection issues for ExxonMobil/Hess […]

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8:35 AM

Morning Sankey, Oil’s restructuring is ripping

Huge day yesterday for the re-balancing of oil markets, consolidation of the oil corporate landscape, and ultimate mega-tightening of the oil balance leading to global inflation. The biggest oil producer in California, $CRC, files for bankruptcy Top class Permian player $FANG slashes its activity and volume outlook Spare capacity gets cut by OPEC, noting additional OPEC oil demand from unusual seasonal demand patterns from COVID, that will reduce exports. Quickly on OPEC – the extra […]

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8:13 AM

Morning Sankey Biden Time

Washington Brief: the latest Biden energy plan announced yesterday is essentially roll up of the AOC/Bernie Sanders Green New Deal and Nancy Pelosi’s recent HEROES Act, not passed by the Senate, which represent huge – multi-trillion – US$ government spending. Intelligence from Washington: if the Democrats sweep in November, it’s happening. Intelligence from Washington: will the Democrats sweep in November? Yes. These are opinions based on public facts, but informed and respected opinions. Meanwhile, also […]

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8:50 AM

Oil Balance

Notable recent changes: MORE SUPPLY, with resumption in Libya likely and Neutral Zone due back this year for additional Saudi/Kuwait (and Chevron) volume, both are outside quota. Noted that all is suspiciously quiet from Iran recently…. Continue reading

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9:14 PM
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