Recent Posts

Morning Negative Revisions

With markets in flames like something out of a Naked Gun movie, Central Bankers the inept cops, rioting traders burning and looting, we continue our post Labor Day theme of advising on fire prevention and avoiding arrest. So: it is sadly time for another negative earnings revision cycle.  We rolled up over 60 US-based energy companies covering upstream, midstream, downstream, integrateds, and oilfield service to see get the booking mugshot for the group. After chasing […]

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8:37 AM

Morning Scope 4

Brooklyn Cop at 844th Precinct accuses innocent Sankey of being “weird-looking” “They” got caught speeding yesterday: fast unwind of long natgas / short refining trade Terrific Happy Hour with Jay Saunders and a couple of other hitters last night; introducing Scope 4 Jennison portfolio manager (PM) Jay Saunders is very popular in the market, you can tell that by the players that dialled in to participate in his call yesterday. He co-runs the Jennison Natural […]

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9:30 AM

Morning Mo Money Mo Problems

“I, Russia” Putin desperation rising Oil markets: would you rather have weak China demand with low oil product exports, or post lockdown China with high product exports? Yet another inventory release threat: China An inventory release threat, Iran, was highlighted by us as likely to go into instability given reports of the serious illness of the aging Supreme Leader. Say her name: “Mahsa Amini”. Protests raging, rightly. “Morality Police” murdering women. As the Fed raises, […]

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8:45 AM

Morning Tape Bombs

Refining getting worse LNG export developer Tellurian whacked as it struggles to finance “by mid-2022”. It’s Q3 2022. As the share price falls, financing from the at the money issuance facility becomes even more problematic. Macro influencer Luke Gromen on Happy Hour Fedex profit warning Fiscal 2Q23 guide $2.75 vs cons $5.46 (!!!) Xi-Putin As we feared refining is getting worse. China export quotas as we highlighted yesterday have further pressured weak Asian margins that […]

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8:41 AM

Morning Rails

PREMIUM EVENT TONIGHT Luke Gromen, high profile strategist, is on Happy Hour this week, Thursday 5pm. Big guest, big views, big themes, Main Event Gromen vs Sankey HH 53. Tonight Sep 15, 2022 05:00 PM ET Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMkcemrqDIvHtyqA85Av3APXBad-aTjuSBR Another great call from our Washington DC guru and Happy Hour regular Frank Kelly, who weeks ago said that he did not believe that a rail strike would be tolerable to the […]

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9:04 AM

Morning Mr Gromen

Dollar vs oil correlation has moved back to inverted very recently. Right now, the oil price is winning, US$ weakening. For the first time in well over a year, media is stating the oil price is rising on a weakening US$. That’s a bit like saying the NY Giants are dominating the NFL – after winning their first  game of the season. WITH THAT SAID Luke Gromen, high profile strategist, is on Happy Hour this […]

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8:15 AM

Morning between a Hard Rock and a palace

Rest in Peace, Queen Elizabeth II. Long live the King! The rainbows were just amazing. One US media outlet described the Queen as the last human link to Great Britain, the Britain of Empire, such as it was when she became Queen in the 1950s. This resonated with me, the Queen with Churchill in photos, for example. Her passing bought back memories of my father, another link to Empire, who left this mortal coil last […]

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8:12 AM

Our Bob’s Gasoline

Last call for the Sankey Research Party at the Hard Rock Penthouse tonight. If you are in NYC and around Times Square, we have a glittering panoply of oil market experts, CEOs, investors, and some hangers on, all welcome. Kathleen Kelley “OPEC whisperer” will comment on the symbolic cut, and we are highlighting the new CEO of refiner Delek USA Avigal Soreq. RSVP if you want to join, there is plenty of space and we […]

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1:13 PM

Morning IRA… the IRS Inflation Act

Observations on the “Inflation Reduction Act”: We read all 730 pages, with 198 being on healthcare, and conclude that, rather than calculate an “Excel told me” analysis, but rather, because of the surprise announcement of the Bill, the stock market provides an early indicator of the Bill’s likely impact: we show you key stock price performance since the Bill was shock-announced by Senators Manchin & Schumer on June 27th: We temper this market reaction. We […]

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8:36 AM

Evening Alimentation

One of our favoured, relatively unmined seams of research, pertains to gas station companies, oil retail, helped by their eccentric reporting schedule. Under its frankly weird fiscal calendar, Alimentation Couche-Tard ($ATD) reported earnings at the close yesterday for fiscal 1Q23, a period ending July 12, 2022.  In a world of energy ignorance, it is widely perceived that high gasoline pump prices are prima facie evidence of gouging by gas station companies, which politicians somehow think […]

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3:59 PM

Midday Verb

Happy Hour this week with Michael Lynch, absolutely tenured energy analyst. Michael can explain the last time California had an EV mandate and why it  bombed, he had a good article in Forbes this past week about it. Long time MIT, totally established energy expert. I will be chatting to him, and if the attendance is graveyard slot (this Thursday evening before Labor Day weekend) I will persuade him to return. Mike Lynch President at […]

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1:29 PM

What to expect when you are expecting

Expecting a recession. Most market participants worry about a recession. No less than Goldman Sachs is clearly concerned: Bloomberg 8/29/22 Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’ •             Slowdown risks outside Europe seen ‘relatively low,’ bank says •             Equities could suffer as raw materials gain, analysts forecast We are all aware of the obvious mega-problems, that Putin is pushing Europe into a depression, China is straight-up missing in action, and the rapid expansion of […]

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8:49 AM

Morning Refining Fire

We have spoken about the structural shortage of US refining capacity repeatedly. We have warned that the US refining system has been running very hard, but has been unable to keep inventories from all time lows relative to demand, particularly for distillate. And we have underlined that distillate (think diesel for my newbie readers) is the default “convenience premium” fuel when natgas and coal get short. It is easier to transport, and generally directly substitutable. […]

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9:31 AM

Morning DOE Boom!

It’s a time of year when the Wednesday 10:30am US government Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (DOE EIA) weekly oil data matters. We normally disdain trying to jerk our knee faster than the army of commodity analysts who jerk their knees as fast as possible to DOE print, some who go so far to send out the entire tables verbatim (thanks!) but this week, for fun, we are competing for the fast note reaction […]

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11:28 AM

Morning Saudi Put… Iranian Call

“The Saudi Put is back” wrote a client yesterday Could well be related to softening in Iran negotiations Certainly, it implies that Saudi wants, enjoys, needs, $100/bbl+ Brent Part of their calculus is a belief in strong demand despite $100/bbl+ this summer, with winter coming That is, the Saudis optimal price is as high as demand can take, and not so high as to cause demand destruction. This summer’s demand strength strongly suggests that range […]

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9:54 AM

Morning War in Europe

We like the long oil trade here, explained Europe is at war. Russian/EU gas expert Jim Henderson was stark on our call: Russia is waging full scale economic war on Europe. Winter is coming. Darling! I never knew you cared Bull trade in oils is back on, in our view. First, we contend that oil equities often predict the next move in oil, the commodity. As shown below, over the past five days E&Ps (and […]

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9:25 AM

Morning Pain Trade

Delighted to say that Dr James Henderson is on Happy Hour Strategy Session tonight, A PREMIUM EVENT. Jim is currently Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, alongside his consultancy work and professorships. When: this evening, Aug 11, 2022 05:00 PM ET, Zoom, Register in advance: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0sd-CtpjsrGdVM0p-MsG1P4WU0dr3hBWq3 ~ One of my favourite concepts on Wall St (or should I say hated?), is the “pain trade.” I first heard of it 20 years ago and […]

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10:09 AM

Morning Data Centers

We are looking for a big fat gasoline demand bounceback number this week in the DOE data, seeing as this morning my Deli guy told me the DOE gasoline numbers are understated. Thanking him, I noted that DINO management (HollyFrontier) confirmed on their results call yesterday that gasoline demand is at worst around 5% below 2019 (not 2020, as appears in the DOE) levels, and in some of their markets – and they have a […]

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9:12 AM

Morning Miss

Tonight Happy Hour: Kathleen Kelley on OPEC. Frank Kelly (invited) on Washington DC – lots of action there. View share on results on what happens next. Today Thursday 4th August 5pm Eastern. Register for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUkc-qvqjgrH9NWL5mVuMMR2AyR3q1cZrtm I was on Bloomberg TV bright and early this morning and… I used the “B” word. Just to note, we are long natgas over oil into the coming economic slowdown, and playing for winter. The announcement that Freeport […]

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8:30 AM

Morning Take a Sad Song

Tomorrow KelleyKelly Hour: Kathleen Kelley on OPEC. Frank Kelly on Washington DC – lots of action there. View share from clients on results and what they expect next. Tomorrow Thursday 4th August 5pm Eastern. Register for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUkc-qvqjgrH9NWL5mVuMMR2AyR3q1cZrtm We increasingly think that we will favour buyback-heavy oils going into the second half, with our year starting, as always, day after Labor Day. What happens next? The Big Oils are all singing from the same […]

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9:23 AM

Morning Go Pelosi

Signature stock: Diamondback strong results, high cash return Signature stock: Devon strong results, high cash return Pelosi to Taiwan: the Administration has strong foreign policy and is pushing China I spoke to a senior government official with knowledge of Foreign Policy yesterday. We first agreed, that we are suffering “lingering COVID” where our recovery from a bout in the past weeks has persisted with non-debilitating symptoms, fatigue, etc – I had a similar conversation with […]

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8:07 AM

Hone on the Range $RRC

Hess came in on the money, for EPS this quarter, with some noise, but the long term value of Guyana just keeps getting bigger, and this is a remarkable play on the oil age pressing through 2030. Call today. The way things are shaping up in Europe, oil & gas resource in the Americas is severely under-valued. Guyana value is staggering, we have talked about Hess as a $200 stock long term. Besides the chronic […]

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8:22 AM

Evening Guanajuato

Sincere thanks to research partner Greg Bordelon, who has been firing company reports at me while I stumble across Mexico in the quest to Morelia. Sorry for the invconvience, but if you would just request the company-specific notes, that would save me doing a ton of cut-and-paste into what would be a monster drone of a note. So email me and I will forward, on these companies: Key points: will we get restructuring at Baker […]

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9:30 AM

Morning Homing Pigeons

Canada from the top rope with the 100bps interest rate rise. US with the 9.1% inflation print. Here’s US inflation since 1914. We argued that the 2020’s have nothing like the set up of the “Roaring 20’s”, in our note written in 2020 “The Cliché-Myth of the Roaring 2020s”. For one, the stock market to start the 1920s had been essentially in a bear market for 15 years, hammered by WWI and Spanish Flu. Not […]

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8:54 AM

Morning China dis-inflation (to inflation)

Rampant inflation globally, underlined by today’s US CPI print has an extraordinary backdrop – China has been dis-inflationary. In certain key markets, notably crude oil and above all LNG, China demand has been negative at the margin in terms of demand growth, with significant roll-overs from previous rampant import growth. Assuming China works through its COVID issues and pursues its 2022 GDP growth plan, a re-acceleration in demand for key commodities seems certain, particularly in […]

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12:03 PM

Big Oil Week Next Week

“Happy” Hour yesterday evening, an oil investor self-help group Big week for oils next week with Nordstream 1 and CPC shutdown decisions coming; Biden visits MBS Buffett buying yet more Oxy – he might go… all… the… way Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway filed notice of acquisition of 12m shares Occidental costing about $698m this week, giving it an 18.7% stake. Buffett had also purchased 9.9m OXY shares last week. Total stake is 175.4m shares worth […]

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9:06 AM

Morning Mr Jones

Briefly noted: Gazprom shares plummet -25% as shareholders reject record dividend plan Uniper, largest German buyer of Russian gas, shares plummet -18% as it says it is receiving just 40% of volumes ordered from Gazprom After two weeks in the dark, with no weekly oil data published, the US Department of Energy released the backlog yesterday. The DOE was keen to stress the “systems outage” was not a hack. Better not be, DOE manages emergency […]

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8:08 AM

Morning Wimbledon

Good to see the oils stabilising and bouncing this week, with Brent crude prices holding the bottom of our $110-$150/bbl range for summer. It is clear that to get past the $130/bbl peak Ukraine fear price we hit in early March 2022, will more likely be a squeezing grind higher on strong demand and weak supply, than another spike shock, although these are always possible in oil. With that said, let’s face it, just about […]

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6:59 AM

Morning St Germain des Pres

How did we get murdered? Murdered? CHK took out 3.5% of their share count in just over a month.  Why am I in Paris, writing from St Germain des Pres? Where did it all go wrong? George Best used to tell the story of winning in a casino, while dating Miss World, and lying in a hotel room with her, empty champagne bottles spread across the room. The service guy entered, looked at the scene, […]

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8:45 AM

Morning Chefchaouen

Action items: Every house in Morocco has a flat roof – but there all-but no visible solar. The projects here are mega; centralised. In Mexico you see a lot of panels. Our overall thought/dream has been that almost everything that uses energy should have a booster solar panel on it, attached to a battery. A “US Solar Buyer Consortium” is open-bidding $6bn for 7GW of US-built panels. Stalking horse to justify solar panel imports? Sure, […]

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6:52 AM

Burning Victory (for the Gold Cup)

Off to Royal Ascot today, thoughts before we take the train, suited, booted, and in Patricia’s case, hatted. We are with the plebians for a variety of reasons. So, I do not need to dress as a penguin/full morning suit and topper (Royal Enclosure dress requirement; there are tiers of “enclosures” descending from Royal, down to Windsor, based on social class, or in America, you would say money (debt will do)). A suit, plain shirt, […]

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6:56 AM

Natgas Prices, Arbs, $AR, and Snoop

Our main concern about the Freeport LNG export outage is that it inspires some “consumer hero” politician in Washington to justify an export ban on oil & gas. The price impact of a cut to gas exports was dramatic yesterday, -15% on spot Henry Hub; Freeport said it would be out for 90 days, end 2022 full resumption. It is imperative that Washington understands the importance of free trade and the role in US oil […]

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7:01 AM

Private vs Public, Cash vs Multiple

Libya down by 1mb/d, maybe President Biden should visit? APA (Apache Oil) duster in Suriname is unfortunate for the marginal mega-bull case BP – like Shell, the non-alcoholic beer of big oils – sells out of Canadian Oil Sands but increases exposure to Western Canada offshore OKLAHOMA CITY, June 14, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has received a non-binding proposal letter, dated June […]

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8:34 AM

Fortunes lost, and won

January 6th 2021, my personal story, or how the best call of my career cost me a lifetime fortune. DINO, how HollyFrontier won a lifetime fortune Starting with DINO, we had “me old mucker” Rich Voliva, CFO on Strategy Session last evening. He has always been impressive, and we had to laugh about him writing a searing indictment of US ethanol policy, as part of our sellside refining team at Deutsche Bank, when it was […]

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9:50 AM

Fancy meeting you here

Just as I was muttering that there is not much happening, it all kicks off. Notably the fire and outage at Freeport LNG yesterday caused a sudden sell-off in natgas prices. “If it is burning live on TV, it moves the market”. Over/under on the outage is 3 weeks, which is very minor in the grand scheme of things, but a big deal at the margin when natgas prices are screaming at $9.50/mmbtu. Freeport LNG […]

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9:55 AM

Terribly sorry, but what is the speed limit?

Tomorrow Zoom Strategy Session: Rich Voliva, CFO HollyFrontier. Thursday Jun 9, 2022 05:00 PM ET Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0kduyprj4uHNTcVO53YRKHbhYSRWHUiIX1 Tonight, quick meeting with Uzi, and Blake, CEO and IR of Delek. I had texted about the story in Tradewinds that they were getting into Jones Act shipping. Apparently they bought a couple of barges that are “not material, especially not in the context of today’s margins”. Lucked into a quick catch up […]

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8:55 AM

The Only Hawkish Central Bank: Saudi

Concerns that Russia may go ex-OPEC+ quota system, system such as it is, have seen oil prices fall hard this week… from $120/bbl to $113/bbl Brent. The chart continues to look extremely powerful, and I was pondering this morning what happened to all the “Peak Oil” community – which was huge in the 2000s, arguing that we were out of oil supply. Of course, US unconventional oil production growth humiliated them, none of whom forecast […]

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9:26 AM

(Not) Rolex Oil

Wednesday already! Tomorrow we have the legendary Mr Bob McNally on Strategy Session. Author of Crude Volatility, a terrific history of global oil prices, Bob is one of the most experienced, thoughtful, connected, entertaining, and outspoken oil analysts of the past 20 years that we have known him. Register in advance for this Premium Event, tomorrow, Thursday, 5pm ET 6/2/22: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUud-iopzIjHtwxZSBacic_3OqJmo5vAzQj ~ The news that Tullow and Capricorn (formerly Cairn) are to merge brings together […]

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8:57 AM

Chesapeake: On a Mission from God

The concept of this note is “putting the band back together” in the theme of the Blues Brothers, as we see the potential for Chesapeake to merge with Southwestern. The Blues Brothers (1980): Jake: We’re putting the band back together. Mr. Fabulous: Forget it. No way. Elwood: We’re on a mission from God. We could get into a long and tearful reminiscence about US natgas legend and Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon (there is a tribute […]

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8:21 AM

Sit Chat Get Banged

Strategy Session was back to the round table stock discussion. It was sufficiently enjoyable that we will now have a monthly round table on stock ideas. Next week we have Tourmaline, week after Bob McNally. In between, Memorial Day is a week Monday, check the whites in your wardrobe and start yelling at the pool guy’s voicemail. Companies mentioned last night: Long Inventory E&P’s. We discussed oil volatility and beta skew as oil holds over […]

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10:47 AM

Today’s Yesterdays

Owing to a COVID protocol in Dubai, our guest today on Happy Hour has been delayed. I will open the Zoom at 5pm tonight for chat, and encourage a couple of top money managers to join. Call it a therapy session, how to stay long your winners and cut your losers. Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUodO6rqz4uHNQ7LrjcpfaRoLZPrNGXSy-g That’s the bad news, no star guest today. However save the date for next week with Tourmaline […]

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9:30 AM

The Value in Scarcity: US Refining

Re-iterate Price Target: Valero $150/share by June 30th. Re-iterate Overweight all US refiners. Illustrating Valero $190/share argument. This is a time of year when the weekly Department of Energy US oil data is crucial: it will be released at 10:30am today. We see an emerging crisis in US oil product markets, depending on how much of that crisis we export to Atlantic Basin markets. It will be a battle of demand destruction: who blinks first […]

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8:37 AM

For Love & Money: Chazen Time

Recommending BUYBACK PLAYS in this tape. We love the Diamondback approach of buybacks when the stock is cheap, specials when the stock is expensive. PREMIUM EVENT Sankey Strategy Session: Kaes Van’t Hof – President and CFO, Diamondback Energy This Thursday May 12, 2022 05:00 AM US Eastern Time. Register Here: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0rcuyorD8rEtFYFdOdB79bWBSDY7MFzYzP ~ Legendary oil executive Steve Chazen on yesterday’s Magnolia $MGY conference call; “I think that the re-evaluation of the industry from 4% of the […]

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8:52 AM

It’s a Marathon and a Print

We had Kathryn Kelley and Bob Jonke on the Strategy Session yesterday. The story of how I managed to steal a major client’s wallet after we watched the Real Madrid vs Man City game with Kathryn was not repeated. It was an accident! Bob is worried about demand destruction and not super-bullish crude here. By contrast, Kathryn sees a 3mb/d shortage of oil in 2H which simply cannot be drawn from inventory, so something has […]

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8:47 AM

Fear of Market Collapse (FOMC) Day

Sankey Strategy Session tomorrow evening: Bob Jonke, Oil trader for Engelhart CTP and Kathleen Kelley, Oil Market Expert aka “the OPEC Whisperer”. When: May 5, 2022 05:00 PM ET, Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcofuqprzMuHd0CDoGbkzN6CiapFAdCg6k2 The Strategy Session this week will be in the context of what will be an extremely low-key OPEC meeting tomorrow with no press conference. Why no press conference? No comment on Russia. Simple as that. Bloomberg 5/4/22 The European […]

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8:14 AM

Morning E&P Cash Return

As anticipated, we saw strong results and cash return promises from several E&Ps reporting last evening, with capital discipline still a strong feature, alongside re-iterated volume targets (modest growth) and cost control. Impressive stuff. Several names now offer in excess of 10% cash return to shareholders. We believe this is sustainable, in most cases, with some concerns over inventory at Devon, Marathon Oil, and Coterra. Given we do not see any need to grow, but […]

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8:54 AM

You said that; Hess, Antero, Suncor

First quarter reporting season is always a crazy flurry, and this one is no different. To add to the excitement, just as I sat back yesterday having published on Antero, news broke that Elliott Associates had gone activist on Suncor. We had Hess IR Jay Wilson on Strategy Session. Hess could be worth $200/share on a five year view, at $100/bbl oil. For sure, Guyana is just about the only major global oil supply growth. […]

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9:03 AM

Antero: the Mets of Natgas

One of the great advantages of the Sankey Research Strategy Sessions (5pm Thursday) is that we get very smart people to join the call, and probably the best stock pick we have had over the past two years has been one client’s unremitting bullishness on Antero Resources. The call really started when we wrote bullishly on propane in a September 2020 note “Propane Sankey”. To give you an idea of the times, part of the […]

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7:38 AM

Arch Comments

Client feedback on yesterday’s Long ADM short Tyson note. “If you love ADM and think it’s attractively valued, you must not be able to contain yourself over Bunge 😊” Long Valero and Refiners – Valero streching for $7 EPS in Q2 and $150 price target Long Arch Coal and/or Peabody – huge free cashflow and implied cash return, like Archer Daniels, like refiners, everything is going their way. Don’t fight it, embrace reality. ~ CNBC: […]

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8:01 AM

Morning Joe

Good looking results beat from Valero setting up the “$5 in Q2” call we made over the past week – CEO is Joe Gorder Valero may turn oils performance that was undermined by oil service results last week, Halliburton leading the oil tape lower; we have had a brutal week since my “Mega-bear call: Oils to 10% of S&P500 note”. Sorry about that. ARCH coal announces an $8 dividend up from 25c. Watch Peabody and […]

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8:30 AM
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