Recent Posts

Morning Hyde Park

Greetings from Hyde Park, We are back in London, Paris was controversial; Patricia considers it the greatest most wonderful place on earth, I get into arguments with Parisians, Selloff dynamics Hess reminder Phillips 66 Comments Morocco? Algeria It’s only rock ‘n’ and I’m 80 On the selloff: To me, the charts are not broken, but we nibbled 5% of the S&P500, then collapsed back to just over 4.1%. It is actually barely visible on the […]

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11:47 AM

Morning St Germain des Pres

How did we get murdered? Murdered? CHK took out 3.5% of their share count in just over a month.  Why am I in Paris, writing from St Germain des Pres? Where did it all go wrong? George Best used to tell the story of winning in a casino, while dating Miss World, and lying in a hotel room with her, empty champagne bottles spread across the room. The service guy entered, looked at the scene, […]

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8:45 AM

Morning Chefchaouen

Action items: Every house in Morocco has a flat roof – but there all-but no visible solar. The projects here are mega; centralised. In Mexico you see a lot of panels. Our overall thought/dream has been that almost everything that uses energy should have a booster solar panel on it, attached to a battery. A “US Solar Buyer Consortium” is open-bidding $6bn for 7GW of US-built panels. Stalking horse to justify solar panel imports? Sure, […]

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6:52 AM

Sunday Marrakesh

Greetings from La Villa des Orangers, Medina (Old Town), Marrakesh, Today – are the big E&Ps cheap? Antero LNG exports – 70mmcfd or 1bcf/d? Postcard from Morocco They say if you want a question answered on the internet, don’t ask the question, but rather post a bold false statement, and you will be flooded with corrections. It is an interesting point on human psychology. Earlier this week we said that Antero was exporting 1bcf/d of […]

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10:06 AM

Burning Victory (for the Gold Cup)

Off to Royal Ascot today, thoughts before we take the train, suited, booted, and in Patricia’s case, hatted. We are with the plebians for a variety of reasons. So, I do not need to dress as a penguin/full morning suit and topper (Royal Enclosure dress requirement; there are tiers of “enclosures” descending from Royal, down to Windsor, based on social class, or in America, you would say money (debt will do)). A suit, plain shirt, […]

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6:56 AM

Natgas Prices, Arbs, $AR, and Snoop

Our main concern about the Freeport LNG export outage is that it inspires some “consumer hero” politician in Washington to justify an export ban on oil & gas. The price impact of a cut to gas exports was dramatic yesterday, -15% on spot Henry Hub; Freeport said it would be out for 90 days, end 2022 full resumption. It is imperative that Washington understands the importance of free trade and the role in US oil […]

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7:01 AM

Private vs Public, Cash vs Multiple

Libya down by 1mb/d, maybe President Biden should visit? APA (Apache Oil) duster in Suriname is unfortunate for the marginal mega-bull case BP – like Shell, the non-alcoholic beer of big oils – sells out of Canadian Oil Sands but increases exposure to Western Canada offshore OKLAHOMA CITY, June 14, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) today announced that its board of directors (the “Board”) has received a non-binding proposal letter, dated June […]

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8:34 AM

The Texas Power Parasite: Bitcoin

We have postulated, for example in our note on Dr Copper (Sweet Chile & Mines, Jan 2022), that China’s total dominance of global primary commodity processing, would eventually force the US and Europe to re-domicile supply chains and manufacturing industry. Having massively and excessively out-sourced energy and commodity-intense industry to China over the past 15 years, the world, not least the US & EU governments, are now recognizing the need to re-domicile core production, back […]

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2:58 PM

Fortunes lost, and won

January 6th 2021, my personal story, or how the best call of my career cost me a lifetime fortune. DINO, how HollyFrontier won a lifetime fortune Starting with DINO, we had “me old mucker” Rich Voliva, CFO on Strategy Session last evening. He has always been impressive, and we had to laugh about him writing a searing indictment of US ethanol policy, as part of our sellside refining team at Deutsche Bank, when it was […]

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9:50 AM

Fancy meeting you here

Just as I was muttering that there is not much happening, it all kicks off. Notably the fire and outage at Freeport LNG yesterday caused a sudden sell-off in natgas prices. “If it is burning live on TV, it moves the market”. Over/under on the outage is 3 weeks, which is very minor in the grand scheme of things, but a big deal at the margin when natgas prices are screaming at $9.50/mmbtu. Freeport LNG […]

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9:55 AM

Casey’s Jones’ SUV: Gasoline Elasticity

Some real time gasoline demand price elasticity data was given on today’s Casey’s call, and we thought it was worth sharing verbatim, with a little extra cheese. In case you missed it, Casey’s is a huge “convenience store“/gasoline station operator. Some 55% of revenue comes from fuel sales, of $8.7bn, generating 32% of gross profit of $2.4bn. Casey’s, is not just the 3rd largest convenience store in the USA, it is the US’ 5th biggest […]

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9:25 PM

Terribly sorry, but what is the speed limit?

Tomorrow Zoom Strategy Session: Rich Voliva, CFO HollyFrontier. Thursday Jun 9, 2022 05:00 PM ET Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0kduyprj4uHNTcVO53YRKHbhYSRWHUiIX1 Tonight, quick meeting with Uzi, and Blake, CEO and IR of Delek. I had texted about the story in Tradewinds that they were getting into Jones Act shipping. Apparently they bought a couple of barges that are “not material, especially not in the context of today’s margins”. Lucked into a quick catch up […]

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8:55 AM

Early June Sunday

June, A beautiful day here in Brooklyn Heights, I wish you a wonderful Sunday. I always maintain that if you ignored the media, you would think it’s a wonderful world. And it is! That said, I am enjoying the mass media coverage of the Jubilee. BREAKING NEWS: QUEEN WAVES FROM BALCONY. Headline on my screen here. And we are kicking ourselves for not being in London, given my mother lives right on Hyde Park, in […]

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3:05 PM

The Only Hawkish Central Bank: Saudi

Concerns that Russia may go ex-OPEC+ quota system, system such as it is, have seen oil prices fall hard this week… from $120/bbl to $113/bbl Brent. The chart continues to look extremely powerful, and I was pondering this morning what happened to all the “Peak Oil” community – which was huge in the 2000s, arguing that we were out of oil supply. Of course, US unconventional oil production growth humiliated them, none of whom forecast […]

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9:26 AM

(Not) Rolex Oil

Wednesday already! Tomorrow we have the legendary Mr Bob McNally on Strategy Session. Author of Crude Volatility, a terrific history of global oil prices, Bob is one of the most experienced, thoughtful, connected, entertaining, and outspoken oil analysts of the past 20 years that we have known him. Register in advance for this Premium Event, tomorrow, Thursday, 5pm ET 6/2/22: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUud-iopzIjHtwxZSBacic_3OqJmo5vAzQj ~ The news that Tullow and Capricorn (formerly Cairn) are to merge brings together […]

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8:57 AM

Sunday Sancerre

Glad tidings, A long weekend in the US, a four day weekend in the UK for the Queen’s platinum jubilee, seventy years as Monarch. Quite the rein. Go easy on your temperamental French executive chef today as he crashes around in a fury having to stoop to make your requested Memorial weekend hot dogs and chicken nuggets. The fact that you intend to slug super-chilled Napa Screaming Eagle Sauvignon blanc is only upsetting him more.  […]

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3:59 PM

Rose Tonight: Tourmaline

Tonight, in conversation, the CEO of Tourmaline, Mike Rose, carrying an extremely high reputation. Also CFO Brian Robinson, and Scott Kirker Chief Legal Officer. We also really like IR Jamie Heard, who clearly gets it. 5/26, 5PM EST – Sankey Strategy Session: Tourmaline Oil (TOU) CEO, CFO, CLO, IR Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZAtd-qgrTgiGt1U3rdbkLIZZZRt5VcpfcKR 6/2, 5PM EST – Sankey Strategy Session Bob McNally, President, Rapidan Group Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUud-iopzIjHtwxZSBacic_3OqJmo5vAzQj […]

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11:33 AM

Chesapeake: On a Mission from God

The concept of this note is “putting the band back together” in the theme of the Blues Brothers, as we see the potential for Chesapeake to merge with Southwestern. The Blues Brothers (1980): Jake: We’re putting the band back together. Mr. Fabulous: Forget it. No way. Elwood: We’re on a mission from God. We could get into a long and tearful reminiscence about US natgas legend and Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon (there is a tribute […]

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8:21 AM

Sit Chat Get Banged

Strategy Session was back to the round table stock discussion. It was sufficiently enjoyable that we will now have a monthly round table on stock ideas. Next week we have Tourmaline, week after Bob McNally. In between, Memorial Day is a week Monday, check the whites in your wardrobe and start yelling at the pool guy’s voicemail. Companies mentioned last night: Long Inventory E&P’s. We discussed oil volatility and beta skew as oil holds over […]

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10:47 AM

Today’s Yesterdays

Owing to a COVID protocol in Dubai, our guest today on Happy Hour has been delayed. I will open the Zoom at 5pm tonight for chat, and encourage a couple of top money managers to join. Call it a therapy session, how to stay long your winners and cut your losers. Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUodO6rqz4uHNQ7LrjcpfaRoLZPrNGXSy-g That’s the bad news, no star guest today. However save the date for next week with Tourmaline […]

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9:30 AM

The Value in Scarcity: US Refining

Re-iterate Price Target: Valero $150/share by June 30th. Re-iterate Overweight all US refiners. Illustrating Valero $190/share argument. This is a time of year when the weekly Department of Energy US oil data is crucial: it will be released at 10:30am today. We see an emerging crisis in US oil product markets, depending on how much of that crisis we export to Atlantic Basin markets. It will be a battle of demand destruction: who blinks first […]

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8:37 AM

Embark EMBK: Blizzard Conditions

There were two SPAC deals that we had looked at over the past year, in expanding coverage towards energy transition, in the quest to find value in a market packed with dodgy and highly valued SPACs. First was Li-Cycle battery re-cycling, second was Embark Autonomous trucks. Both have been subject to short-seller reports, today we update on Embark. We wrote at length on the subject of Embark $EMBK autonomous trucks in September last year while […]

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8:25 AM

Good times in the right places

Happy Sunday in May, Never a bad thing. Fog this morning has lifted. Aramco results this morning rounded out a week when it became the largest stock in the world by market capitalization, surpassing Apple (not by free float, the Saudi government owns 94%). It  generated an enormous profit in a quarter when Brent averaged just about $100/bbl (actually $99.53/bbl Q1 average).   Refining earnings, as well as continued huge upstream earnings, will be even […]

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3:56 PM

$FANG-TASTIC VOYAGE: CFO Kaes

We hosted Kaes Van’t Hof on Thursday’s Strategy Session. He is President and CFO of Diamondback Energy, a $24bn market cap/$30bn enterprise value pure play Permian US oil & gas exploration & production (E&P) company headquartered in Midland, Texas. Kaes is impressive; client feedback on his chat was strong. A young man, 36 years old, a former tennis pro out of California/USC with Dutch heritage (he and his father Robert became the first father and […]

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11:44 AM

Shorts and Shortages

PREMIUM EVENT TONIGHT Sankey Strategy Session: Kaes Van’t Hof – President and CFO, Diamondback Energy May 12, 2022 05:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada) https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0rcuyorD8rEtFYFdOdB79bWBSDY7MFzYzP Quote of the week: “I am a dinosaur, but I have never seen these things,” Saudi minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (AbS), who’s been attending OPEC meetings since the 1980s, said Tuesday at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the recent surge in prices for refined products. “The […]

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8:55 AM

For Love & Money: Chazen Time

Recommending BUYBACK PLAYS in this tape. We love the Diamondback approach of buybacks when the stock is cheap, specials when the stock is expensive. PREMIUM EVENT Sankey Strategy Session: Kaes Van’t Hof – President and CFO, Diamondback Energy This Thursday May 12, 2022 05:00 AM US Eastern Time. Register Here: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0rcuyorD8rEtFYFdOdB79bWBSDY7MFzYzP ~ Legendary oil executive Steve Chazen on yesterday’s Magnolia $MGY conference call; “I think that the re-evaluation of the industry from 4% of the […]

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8:52 AM

Portfolio Manager Special: Sunday Calls

Few, As they say on the internet. Today we have a PORTFOLIO MANAGER SPECIAL in the presentation, which includes a full glorious ppt on the largest stocks in the market, and for bonus, a Sankey Recommendation on each stock. The oils look great on these charts. The recommendations on names like Google (BUY) or Disney (SELL) are purely quanatitive interpretation of charts, we do not cover non-energy related stocks fundamentally. So this is quantitative analysis, […]

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12:55 PM

It’s a Marathon and a Print

We had Kathryn Kelley and Bob Jonke on the Strategy Session yesterday. The story of how I managed to steal a major client’s wallet after we watched the Real Madrid vs Man City game with Kathryn was not repeated. It was an accident! Bob is worried about demand destruction and not super-bullish crude here. By contrast, Kathryn sees a 3mb/d shortage of oil in 2H which simply cannot be drawn from inventory, so something has […]

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8:47 AM

CHK 1Q22: The King of Carrot Flowers I

In our recent natural gas thematic piece, we had three top picks: Antero, Tourmaline, and Chesapeake. We highlighted the concerning trajectory of US storage inventory, noting that conditions today are yielding a storage level at the end of injection season that is uncomfortably low.  At 3.4 Tcf projected by end of October, storage would be 200 Bcf lower than 2021 and would be the second lowest level of underground storage in the last 16 years.  […]

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8:45 AM

Fear of Market Collapse (FOMC) Day

Sankey Strategy Session tomorrow evening: Bob Jonke, Oil trader for Engelhart CTP and Kathleen Kelley, Oil Market Expert aka “the OPEC Whisperer”. When: May 5, 2022 05:00 PM ET, Register in advance for this meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcofuqprzMuHd0CDoGbkzN6CiapFAdCg6k2 The Strategy Session this week will be in the context of what will be an extremely low-key OPEC meeting tomorrow with no press conference. Why no press conference? No comment on Russia. Simple as that. Bloomberg 5/4/22 The European […]

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8:14 AM

Morning E&P Cash Return

As anticipated, we saw strong results and cash return promises from several E&Ps reporting last evening, with capital discipline still a strong feature, alongside re-iterated volume targets (modest growth) and cost control. Impressive stuff. Several names now offer in excess of 10% cash return to shareholders. We believe this is sustainable, in most cases, with some concerns over inventory at Devon, Marathon Oil, and Coterra. Given we do not see any need to grow, but […]

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8:54 AM

May Day Sunday Sankey 5/1/22

Happy May Day Sunday, Today in partnership with Greg Bordelon of Isentropic Capital, we publish a note on natural gas markets by way of thesis overview to a theme that we will continue to pursue. The note is long graphics, and particularly interesting on US markets. If you only want to read half, read the second US half. It is as noted graphic intense. European gas markets are fundamentally far more un-analysable than US right […]

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2:48 PM

You said that; Hess, Antero, Suncor

First quarter reporting season is always a crazy flurry, and this one is no different. To add to the excitement, just as I sat back yesterday having published on Antero, news broke that Elliott Associates had gone activist on Suncor. We had Hess IR Jay Wilson on Strategy Session. Hess could be worth $200/share on a five year view, at $100/bbl oil. For sure, Guyana is just about the only major global oil supply growth. […]

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9:03 AM

Antero: the Mets of Natgas

One of the great advantages of the Sankey Research Strategy Sessions (5pm Thursday) is that we get very smart people to join the call, and probably the best stock pick we have had over the past two years has been one client’s unremitting bullishness on Antero Resources. The call really started when we wrote bullishly on propane in a September 2020 note “Propane Sankey”. To give you an idea of the times, part of the […]

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7:38 AM

Arch Comments

Client feedback on yesterday’s Long ADM short Tyson note. “If you love ADM and think it’s attractively valued, you must not be able to contain yourself over Bunge 😊” Long Valero and Refiners – Valero streching for $7 EPS in Q2 and $150 price target Long Arch Coal and/or Peabody – huge free cashflow and implied cash return, like Archer Daniels, like refiners, everything is going their way. Don’t fight it, embrace reality. ~ CNBC: […]

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8:01 AM

Leg Day: Archer Daniels

Sankey Research core focus: energy, but you don’t want to skip leg day. A couple of interesting results today, this brief covers ADM. While ADM does not screen spectacularly on valuation, cheap or expensive, it has a track record of consistently beating expectations. The company official target is $7 EPS by 2025. It on track to $8 EPS this year. The stock has run from a $40-$50/share range prior to COVID, dropped to a COVID […]

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8:13 PM

Morning Joe

Good looking results beat from Valero setting up the “$5 in Q2” call we made over the past week – CEO is Joe Gorder Valero may turn oils performance that was undermined by oil service results last week, Halliburton leading the oil tape lower; we have had a brutal week since my “Mega-bear call: Oils to 10% of S&P500 note”. Sorry about that. ARCH coal announces an $8 dividend up from 25c. Watch Peabody and […]

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8:30 AM

Is it time to sell Valero? No

With the company reporting tomorrow, a client asked if it was time to sell Valero with the stock over $100/share. Our first target was $120 prior to the Ukraine invasion. We now think that $150/share is a stretch target. For your consideration: Using VLO’s reported indicators as a starting point, we see momentum established in late 1Q has carried through to 2Q so far.  These are straight off the VLO website: We’re in uncharted territory […]

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8:58 AM

Sunday Sankey

Quick read today as you got a longer note yesterday on LNG, and I am running late. Just pictures today, and Betsey asked to be on the cover of the Sunday Sankey so it’s a presentation. All the fun favourite charts. Key slides: next week’s earnings highlights starting with Valero. Relative performance, oils performance, high free cashflow yields, and a cash return chart that will be updated on a rolling basis through earnings. Earnings calendar […]

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5:46 PM

LNG: Gordon & Gorgon

This LNG round up with Gordon Shearer (Poten & Partners guru) from Thursday night took longer to write and I got tangled in the SLB results, which came in okay – readers will know I am not pushing service companies but love oils… “to 10% of S&P500!” Chatting to a client with Midstream expertise before Gordon Shearer, LNG expert, came on Strategy Session Thursday evening, the view was that Kinder Morgan results were decent owing […]

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5:43 PM

Mega-Bear Call: Oil to 10% of SPX

Yesterday on CNBC I repeated the call that oil could get to 10% of the S&P500 based on the current dynamics in global energy. In the segment (link below), which was in the context of Netflix stock collapsing 35% yesterday (down hard further in the pre-market today), I gave a hack explanation of how a growth stock valuation can collapse. Basically, if the market is anticipating huge growth in a zero interest rate environment, the […]

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9:42 AM

Happy Anniversary

The only good number in oil is the oil price The only good demand number in oil is refining margins The only barrier of entry to being an oil analyst is units You are only as good as your last call CNBC want me on this afternoon – unusually they booked me two weeks ago – for the second anniversary of oil prices going negative. Let me go to the grave saying I called for […]

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9:43 AM

Iraq and a Hard Place

This note starts with some near term Iraq production and export analysis, and works backwards through the short term political history, and long term political history, of the country, in the context of oil. Bottom line, Iraqi political instability continues, but oil production has steadily risen over the past 15 years to around 4.3mb/d – an all-time historic high for Iraq – and can likely rise a few more 100kb/ds, certainly in the medium term. […]

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8:52 AM

Sunday Philosophies

Greetings from Maryland, With limited computing power at my disposal, and having been in thought since watching Elon on Thursday give a TED interview, followed by self-identified philosopher Alex Epstein on our Thursday Strategy Session, a couple of days off, a stroll in Annapolis, this is note is more ideas in 1,000 words, to make a picture, than pictures worth 1,000 words. No demand destruction because there is nowhere to go to substitute Therefore self-compounding […]

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12:48 PM

Life and taxes

Strategy Session Tonight 5pm ET Alex Epstein “The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels”. Next Thursday 5pm Gordon Shearer, Poten & Partners, on Global LNG, save the date. Investment themes: long refining, long US oily E&P; rushing to do more work on US natgas but have loved Antero as our play; Tourmaline interesting, Energy Transfer interesting. Worried about oilfield service earnings upcoming, but clients want to buy them on operating leverage and global oil & gas […]

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8:14 AM

Give them an inch

Thanks to those of you – Chuck Yates; and the classiest guy on Wall St, Mr Sully at Goldman – who called me regarding the Brooklyn subway incident/terrorism/whatever this morning; Patricia takes the subway all the time. She’s flying back from London right now, so totally safe. Very classy to call, thanks. Hope you too are all safe. Of course needless to say, my breezy offer to run any stock in the S&P500 earnings share […]

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12:30 PM

Oil’s share of the SPX

Ripper chart, most bullish I have seen in 30 years following US E&P – quant analysis. Any chart available on request, any stock in the market… Share of S&P500 market cap vs share of S&P500 earnings. Black line is sellside. Blue line is buyside (share of market cap). Buyside is smarter than sellside, read the charts. Mi amigo US E&P, chart most bullish in history; Oxy, PXD, COP, FANG, APA, Hes.. Unprecedented bullish chart, buy […]

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5:05 PM

PBF & PBS Strategy Session

China rant PBF – Q1 likely half messy, but finishes running strong into incredible margins as Q2 starts Sankey Recommends: Liverpool vs Man City Premiership decider tomorrow – two of the best club football teams ever to play, at their peak. PBF CEO Tom Nimbley, President Matt Lucey, CFO Erik Young, and IR Colin Murray were on good form on Strategy Session yesterday evening. Nimbley started his career in refining in the 1973 oil price […]

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8:53 AM

Nets, Knicks, Refiners

Tonight PBF management on Strategy Session, 5pm for a tight hour. RSVP. I was at the Knicks vs Nets game last night with a global oil executive; combined with conversations with ConocoPhillips management Tuesday, some brief points. First, Shell profit warning this morning. Break it up. We would like to see a global LNG & gas and power trading powerhouse, a downstream “high carbon” operation with refining, chemicals and retail, a deepwater company. We don’t […]

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8:48 AM
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