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Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

I don’t know where I’m going, but I sure know where I’ve been…

Reminder: we have Valero management live as this week’s Happy Hour. Thursday, August 6th @ 2:30PM ET – note unusual time. Guests: Randy Hawkins, VP International Crude Oil Supply & Trading, and Brian Donovan, VP IR; not sure on Homer Bhullar, CFO, but would not be shocked if he is on. Submit interest: sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-valero-interest-form Five questions for Valero: Q1a: Pre- vs post-Hormuz: what changed in your crude slate and product yields, with Russia escalation on

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Paul Sankey August 4, 2026 12:09 PM

Sunday: The Assyrian Came Down Like a Japanese Yen

Greetings, After sending you a UAE note yesterday that tried to start punchy with Hormuz volume charts, then later went back 2,500 years to to Cyrus the Great, Persian Empire I, today we have mostly charts. “You, me, and the UAE” was emailed to you yesterday intra-Saturday. It feels a momentous time in writhing markets, and it feels like the combination of the Japanese Yen, the new Fed Chair, and well, Korea’s Kopsi index, never

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Paul Sankey August 2, 2026 7:26 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

You, Me, and the UAE; Oil Export Volumes, History & Present Situation

Illustrated below, Hormuz flows split crude oil vs products. We note the extent to which the war has interrupted oil product supplies globally, especially to Asia and Europe. Source: Kpler, Sankey Research, Claude The market tends to focus on the crude oil impact, but in reality it is gasoline trading at $150/bbl wholesale, not crude at $90/bbl. We did not quite get the celebrated $250/bbl, but Asian jet fuel hit $240.50/bbl on 4 March —

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Paul Sankey August 1, 2026 3:37 PM
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