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Quote of the day: In a war of ego, the loser always wins
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

BP: Trading Statement; Raising Our Brent forecast to $120/bbl for 2026

With everybody yelling about the massive disconnect of Dated Brent over paper Brent, which has been around a +$40/bbl premium in recent days, I have seen no mention of the large fact that the Big Oils earn Dated Brent, not the paper price that is killing oil bulls (long the paper) with frustration. So the price you see on your screen – Brent around $100/bbl – far understates what the companies will earn when they

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Paul Sankey April 14, 2026 10:32 AM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Upside Down Under

Good day, Yesterday I found myself transported into a personal Gulf War moment. I was examining the extensive damage to my large air condenser unit, a major, brand new piece of infrastructure, just two years old. It had been hit directly from above by a 700lb incoming projectile. Direct hit to the top, wrecked. I had a flash the Qatar desert, considering engineers inspecting damage, must feel like this. The unit was obviously a write

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Paul Sankey April 12, 2026 8:24 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Midday Product & Tanker not Crude Shortage

Greetings, Today, very shortly, 4pm Zoom Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy & Geopolitical Risk at Kpler [global leading satellite/data intelligence focused on commodity markets]. A former oil trader and hedge fund player, Michelle is an expert in global oil balances, working for the premium oil flow intelligence player, Kpler. Register here: https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-michelle-brouhard-head-of-policy-geopolitical-risk-at-kpler-interest-form/ ~ 1. The problem: refinery capacity and ships, not crude supply My thoughts have been occupied with the global refining and oil product

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Paul Sankey April 9, 2026 1:18 PM
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